Covid-19 information - some statistics, models, and firsthand sources.

Had to do the kiddo handoff today. We generally meet about halfway, but today she wanted to meet at the Ranch99 in Richmond. In the space of five minutes I saw two folks in the market wearing disposable surgical masks with them pulled below their nose... Some folks aren't really getting the reasoning behind mask usage. I know my mask isn't there to protect me, but is there to stop droplet spread just in case I'm asymptomatic. I don't bother wearing them unless I'm out in public. In my car, hardly. But I also sanitize my hands as soon as I take my mask off. It's allergy season, and there's no way I'm able to keep my hands off of my face.

Now, just to get people that would like the State/nation/world to start using data driven decision making REALLY pissed off. Start watching about 14:50



That's the Illinois public health director stating that anyone with a positive covid-19 diagnosis that died, would be counted as a covid-19 death. No matter what the actual cause of death.

Garbage in, garbage out in action.

I don't think so,

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

And the story

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/coronavirus-death-toll-cdc-misinformation

Good catch, thank you. I just finished reading the technical notes regarding death reporting on the CDC site, and the discrepancies between the two CDC sites. According to the notes, the National Center for Health Statistics data (the one claiming 37k COVID deaths) compiles data from death certificates. Apparently, some states and localities will only report a death as a COVID-related death if lab results confirm that the patient had COVID, while other states will report a death as COVID-related either via lab or clinical results. This can potentially lead to under-reporting of COVID-related deaths.

Recognizing the issue, CDC went and recommended standardized reporting for all states and localities to follow to improve data collection and representation: https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/Interim-20-ID-01_COVID-19.pdf

Regarding the link above, if you scroll down to Page 3 and look at the Clinical Criteria for attributing a death to COVID, it basically says if you had a fever and chills, AND there was no alternative more likely diagnosis, that your death was related to COVID-19. I interpret that as a potential for over-reporting of COVID cases, particularly in however the "no alternative more likely diagnosis" part is interpreted by a given medical professional(s), but I'm no doctor and won't pretend to be.

The link below is to a PBS report regarding the rampant spread of misinformation regarding COVID-19.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-dangerous-global-flood-of-misinformation-surrounding-covid-19?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=pbsofficial&utm_campaign=newshour&utm_content=1588291210&fbclid=IwAR3e8ZFHtff1ZJ1SVQseq_vRv04RVfF58lJHCMYyhnHLsXK9VsEUElCunkw

Takeaway message: we need to use critical thinking when we digest and interpret presented information, let alone if we're about to share/spread that information with others. Personally, I constantly remind myself of this: just because I want something to be true, doesn't make it true.

For what’s its worth as far as reducing the risk of catching or dying from covid-19 goes.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mood-microbe/202005/can-gut-microbes-predict-covid-19-severity

Another tidbit I just saw.

Indeed it looks like we have  been in a plateau for a while, and it looks like we could be in for a  protracted plateau, instead of the seasonal drop and second peak many have predicted. Interesting twitter  thread from this scientist:
https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976675252158465

I have a little first hand experience because I think I had that evil virus. There is no way of knowing where I picked it up...Kaiser for an eye appointment? Costco? some jack ass sneezing on the sidewalk?

All I can say is stay away from the likely places you can pick it up and protect yourself if you go out to get something. 

I went through a 10 day trip to hell and back, a fever over 100 degrees for 16 days peaking at 104, and exhaustion for over a month. I gained 7 pounds the first week (I don't know how that happened), then I lost that and lost another 12 pounds. I have never been through a virus like that before. I couldn't get a test through Kaiser but the city opened it up and I was tested negative after 3 weeks of the first symptoms. That means at the time of the test it was not in my body. I would really like to get an antibody test just to know for sure and possibly donate plasma so I can help out 4 other people. 

I will tell you how serious the virus is...I HAVE NOT HAD A BEER OR SEARCHED THE INTERNET FOR FISHING TACKLE FOR OVER A MONTH! 

Heed the warning folks and I hope all of you stay safe and never catch that thing. Of course if you are younger you probably will not be affected the way I was. I'm 60.

A skeptics point of view?

Looking forward to seeing the upcoming Infowars and Breitbart and Occupy Dems videos being posted here soon...

Called it! Only took six days  .

 

Looking forward to seeing the upcoming Infowars and Breitbart and Occupy Dems videos being posted here soon...

Called it! Only took six days  .

 

I have a little first hand experience because I think I had that evil virus. There is no way of knowing where I picked it up...Kaiser for an eye appointment? Costco? some jack ass sneezing on the sidewalk?

All I can say is stay away from the likely places you can pick it up and protect yourself if you go out to get something. 

I went through a 10 day trip to hell and back, a fever over 100 degrees for 16 days peaking at 104, and exhaustion for over a month. I gained 7 pounds the first week (I don't know how that happened), then I lost that and lost another 12 pounds. I have never been through a virus like that before. I couldn't get a test through Kaiser but the city opened it up and I was tested negative after 3 weeks of the first symptoms. That means at the time of the test it was not in my body. I would really like to get an antibody test just to know for sure and possibly donate plasma so I can help out 4 other people. 

I will tell you how serious the virus is...I HAVE NOT HAD A BEER OR SEARCHED THE INTERNET FOR FISHING TACKLE FOR OVER A MONTH! 

Heed the warning folks and I hope all of you stay safe and never catch that thing. Of course if you are younger you probably will not be affected the way I was. I'm 60.

I have a buddy in Virginia that got it. It’s for sure no joke. He was fully laid up for a month, my age (43) healthy dirt biker buddy. The flu is no joke either, I think we forget how bad that can be sometimes, but even after recovering he’s struggling to put in 5-6 hours of work in a day.

Looking forward to seeing the upcoming Infowars and Breitbart and Occupy Dems videos being posted here soon...

Called it! Only took six days  .

A skeptics point of view?

Dale L

Your post about your approach to family life highlights what the difficulties might be as far as getting the public oriented and back to something near normal

It boils it down to the question of how to adapt a simple set of routine hospital practices to all the different settings that make up public life

There are a few factors that make that more urgent, e.g.

1) data and stats are too slow to be of much use and it’s hard to see why it’s such a fixation right now when the hotspots are so stunning. Mortality rate etc seems almost irrelevant in the face of that

2) a vaccine would be great but will probably also be too slow coming to sit and wait for that to happen

3) the current approach has burned up whatever economic buffer that we might have had, the more this drags on that’ll only get worse

You and I are in the high risk category per age, I don’t know what health factors you have other than that our immune systems aren’t  what they were when we were 20, I have an added factor that puts me at very high risk

Not saying anyone should totally drop their guard for the younger ones among us, but from close up experience I’m pretty confident my son and wife can survive covid

Can’t speak for you but I feel pretty confident that I can survive it too, the most important thing for me is the issue of not spreading it

When I read your post per your family life I started thinking how it could be fine tuned for your survival, again there are exceptions but what I’ve seen in kids is they have so much more innate vitality they blow it off

This is one of the weird factors with this corona virus, how brutal it is depends to a large extent on age

Only suggestion I’d have from one old guy to another is buff up your physical and mental well being to the max. Don’t worry too much about your grandkids it’s you who’s at risk, but you probably already get that

I’ll try to think through how hospital practices would fit in your routine and pm them to you

I’m not a virologist or infectious disease specialist, but all the people around me rely 100% on conclusions those people reached about what’s safe or not. A lot of that goes with me everywhere every day everything I do, pre covid, I don’t like to be sick and can’t go to work sick

I might take it too much for granted that other people have the same concerns

Now that’s a fact of life for everyone and probably the only reliable path back to normal, hopefully we don’t end up crawling back there on our knees

Long way round to suggesting maybe it’s about fine tuning our infection control habits and beefing up our immune systems

Sounds so simple

I really appreciate your constructive information & opinion again, bluekayak.

I have a little first hand experience because I think I had that evil virus. There is no way of knowing where I picked it up...Kaiser for an eye appointment? Costco? some jack ass sneezing on the sidewalk?

All I can say is stay away from the likely places you can pick it up and protect yourself if you go out to get something. 

I went through a 10 day trip to hell and back, a fever over 100 degrees for 16 days peaking at 104, and exhaustion for over a month. I gained 7 pounds the first week (I don't know how that happened), then I lost that and lost another 12 pounds. I have never been through a virus like that before. I couldn't get a test through Kaiser but the city opened it up and I was tested negative after 3 weeks of the first symptoms. That means at the time of the test it was not in my body. I would really like to get an antibody test just to know for sure and possibly donate plasma so I can help out 4 other people. 

I will tell you how serious the virus is...I HAVE NOT HAD A BEER OR SEARCHED THE INTERNET FOR FISHING TACKLE FOR OVER A MONTH! 

Heed the warning folks and I hope all of you stay safe and never catch that thing. Of course if you are younger you probably will not be affected the way I was. I'm 60.

I was little mixed feeling about my "Not detected" test result last week, but hearing story like this (my friend's old coworker is going through this for last 5 weeks now & she's in her late 20th) I'm glad I didn't get it...

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200501/sweden-sticks-with-controversial-covid19-approach
Might be too early to say, but Sweden is not doing so great per capita with their approach...

Looking forward to seeing the upcoming Infowars and Breitbart and Occupy Dems videos being posted here soon...

Called it! Only took six days  .

I could swear you said this wasn’t worth your time. I know, only the points of view you agree with have merit. I called that.