Covid-19 information - some statistics, models, and firsthand sources.

No clayman, I can google as well as the next person

I’m asking here if anyone has any idea what the science is behind SIP

If you want the science behind infection control google that, there’s an abundance of it and I’m living by it right now

Any jackass can lay out a rationale that looks plausible, I’m wondering about the science

The science during the Black Plague was miasma theory but that was 500 years ago and they didn’t know any better

It’s a relevant question, a lot of attack on anyone who questions the soundness of SIP

Our family is now in real peril of losing one of two essential incomes, and if that happens we will lose our home

It would be nice to know a little about what the science is to justify that

Don't you work at a hospital? Surely there are qualified people there who could answer your question.

I can agree with Chris on this.
While I respect and appreciate bluekayak to share his experience and thoughts, because we do not agree with your view point you should not put your families' burden on us to expect answer your question for continuous arguments on Kayakfising Forum...?

My family’s burdens are hardly unique right now, there are already millions in far worse circumstances because of this policy. Anything Ive said is just to get people to think a little about what’s going on, maybe consider that altering our current approach could result in less people ending up on the skids

It’s a simple question, what is the science to support the draconian measures we’re living with? The closest anybody has come is that it’s an effort to keep people apart and lower the risk of infection, but that’s pretty obvious. Unless the science is different than what is practiced in hospitals we have options

One of them is based in proven science, well proven in practice and at very low cost, involves some simple PPE and a little education

The other is highly questionable as to what it achieves in terms of infection control because of the gaps in public understanding that persist even after months of this, and has incalculable costs attached that will only get worse over time

Maybe as things roll closer to the edge people will see things a little differently. I dreamed up two days work and hired two guys I know who are out of work and can’t get relief. One of them is 72 and worked hard labor jobs his whole life and has nothing. Totally reliable guy and still works hard, just a little slower which he’s entitled to at age 72. Our city forbids him to work even though it’s perfectly safe. The other guy’s company was run off a job by the local police, with a little bit of caution it would be perfectly safe for them to work

If you were running a small business but didn’t get in line quickly enough, like the big corporations that got into the White House before it was even public news (McDonald’s jack in the box etc) sounds like there is no more money for them to hand out now. Hawaii is up to something like 70% unemployment and friends just told me you can’t get through to the UE office there anyway. Wait all day and then the website shuts at 11, start over the next day. I’m sure people in many other states are up against similar situations

This all makes perfect sense. Especially if you can do the same thing with a 17 cent mask, soap and water, and a little hand sanitizer

Bad thing to express opinions contrary to consensus right now, never should’ve gone there

As I said I appreciate your front line information & opinions. Thank you for your service!

I'll continue to pummel that Kern County doctors video into the dirt:

https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/04/29/shoddy-statistics-and-false-claims-dr-erickson-dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1G6S76R0_LQfFTaAXt4MbIdHA-Xy9tnwVWobWb9BAayz1My25oATjRjS0

In my state, Texas, our SIP is done Friday. We can get back to a some what normal existence as we slowly get our economy going.
Many of my fellow Texans have been doing a lot where a lot of people gather, yet our cases in the rural regions stay low. Here in my town and region of about a million people we only have six deaths. In my neighborhood of 5000 people no one is sick and no one has been hospitalized. We also are now having our warm weather coming so if the virus is outside, it is dead within minutes. Lots of my neighbors also get outside everyday to walk or play with their children and even gather in larger groups of over ten individuals.Once again no one is sick

...We also are now having our warm weather coming so if the virus is outside, it is dead within minutes.

Is that science-based or will I still need my gloves, mask and disinfectant spray?

...We also are now having our warm weather coming so if the virus is outside, it is dead within minutes.

Is that science-based or will I still need my gloves, mask and disinfectant spray?

No worries. You can lick my spit after a minute

...We also are now having our warm weather coming so if the virus is outside, it is dead within minutes.

Is that science-based or will I still need my gloves, mask and disinfectant spray?

No worries. You can lick my spit after a minute

Going to wait an extra minute just in case.

In all seriousness, wanted to ask that since my co-worker mentioned the same thing and it seems dangerous to assume it.

...We also are now having our warm weather coming so if the virus is outside, it is dead within minutes.

Is that science-based or will I still need my gloves, mask and disinfectant spray?

No worries. You can lick my spit after a minute

Going to wait an extra minute just in case.

In all seriousness, wanted to ask that since my co-worker mentioned the same thing and it seems dangerous to assume it.

Ok, I just went and looked at the Appendix for the study that showed that SARS-CoV-2 can be present in a great enough amount as to be considered viable for transmission.

Study:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home
Appendix:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc2004973/suppl_file/nejmc2004973_appendix.pdf

Now, the testing methodology involved droplets of 50 microliters. That's a 20th of a CC, in other words, a BIG droplet. That's a "say it, don't spray it" sized droplet. And yet, how long would it take that droplet to evaporate outside mid-day right now. In the shade even? There's a reason why seasonal flu is seasonal.

P.S.  It is quite likely that slurping nudling's spit was always safe. Just don't be snorting it. Your digestive system does bad things to most viruses that the mucous membranes in your respiratory system don't do. Nor your eyes for that matter.

...We also are now having our warm weather coming so if the virus is outside, it is dead within minutes.

Is that science-based or will I still need my gloves, mask and disinfectant spray?

No worries. You can lick my spit after a minute

Going to wait an extra minute just in case.

In all seriousness, wanted to ask that since my co-worker mentioned the same thing and it seems dangerous to assume it.

Ok, I just went and looked at the Appendix for the study that showed that SARS-CoV-2 can be present in a great enough amount as to be considered viable for transmission.

Study:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home
Appendix:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc2004973/suppl_file/nejmc2004973_appendix.pdf

Now, the testing methodology involved droplets of 50 microliters. That's a 20th of a CC, in other words, a BIG droplet. That's a "say it, don't spray it" sized droplet. And yet, how long would it take that droplet to evaporate outside mid-day right now. In the shade even? There's a reason why seasonal flu is seasonal.

P.S.  It is quite likely that slurping nudling's spit was always safe. Just don't be snorting it. Your digestive system does bad things to most viruses that the mucous membranes in your respiratory system don't do. Nor your eyes for that matter.

It was Tony's spit lol

It was more of a rhetorical question, since we don't know enough to know what is safe and what isn't. I personally wouldn't rely on it.

One thing to add for a layman's real world comparison.  50 microliters is considered a standard drop, in other words the size of the drop you get from an eyedropper. 

Even in "say it don't spray it mode" I've known very few people who lob a 50 mircoliter drop even when excited.

And finally when I read a study like that I understand why my company sent us all to a course called "Clear Writing for Technical Professionals".

One thing to add for a layman's real world comparison.  50 microliters is considered a standard drop, in other words the size of the drop you get from an eyedropper. 

Even in "say it don't spray it mode" I've known very few people who lob a 50 mircoliter drop even when excited.

And finally when I read a study like that I understand why my company sent us all to a course called "Clear Writing for Technical Professionals".

Good, so I'm not out of my gourd for thinking their "droplet" size was stinking humungous. Which is going to make the time to make the viral load become ineffective for transmission even longer. But, it really helps the "it can live for three days on plastic/stainless steel!!" narrative.

From the US Army's biosecurity lab at Ft Deitrich in Maryland. It's not been peer reviewed, but considering the source and the topic of research, I'm betting there won't be major problems over their methods.

It's refreshing to see nuts n bolts science from reputable sources here again. Thank you guys, it's appreciated  .

Looks like the sun does a number on COVID. Crossing my fingers for a lot of long, sunny days this year. Regarding restaurants, it makes me wonder if outdoor seating would be preferable over indoors? Especially if it's sunny out?

It's refreshing to see nuts n bolts science from reputable sources here again. Thank you guys, it's appreciated  .

Looks like the sun does a number on COVID. Crossing my fingers for a lot of long, sunny days this year. Regarding restaurants, it makes me wonder if outdoor seating would be preferable over indoors? Especially if it's sunny out?

Agree!
Also one of the best thing about visiting EU n Asian countries is outdoor/ sidewalk dining☺️

It was so in the IJ this morning nobody tested positive:

https://www.marinij.com/2020/04/28/bolinas-study-finds-no-coronavirus-cases-in-townwide-testing-probe/

Is this science only or is anybody following economic data?

As far as I'm concerned, if it's verifiable data, it's all good.



The research that indicates that the number of infections in SC Co were much higher during first week of April than thought before:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2.full.pdf+html

Implications are that SARS-CoV-2 has an overall infection fatality rate way below the current known case fatality rate. Like 50 to 80 times lower.

Is this science only or is anybody following economic data?

As far as I'm concerned, if it's verifiable data, it's all good.



The research that indicates that the number of infections in SC Co were much higher during first week of April than thought before:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2.full.pdf+html

Implications are that SARS-CoV-2 has an overall infection fatality rate way below the current known case fatality rate. Like 50 to 80 times lower.

It'll be interesting to see this study go through peer review. While it's infinitely better science than that Kern County doctors junk, some criticisms are emerging on this one:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/20/feud-over-stanford-coronavirus-study-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford?fbclid=IwAR3_aoDlyUahFDijrS_WwdyjtySw9P3ar3lnXpDv9kvyiZNVvG_-u-5m4bc

From the Guardian article: Then there are concerns about the Stanford study’s sample and statistical analysis. The biggest criticism was that it estimated cases for the whole county’s population based on detecting only 50 positives out of 3,300 people sampled. And since the tests had a false positive rate in one assessment of two out of 371, critics argued all the Covid-19 cases detected by the tests in Santa Clara could conceivably have been false positives.

“I think the authors of the above-linked paper owe us all an apology,” wrote Andrew Gelman, director of the applied statistics center at Columbia University, who has written numerous books on teaching statistical methods. “We wasted time and effort discussing this paper whose main selling point was some numbers that were essentially the product of a statistical error.”


It goes without saying that I hope the authors of the study did their due diligence regarding their analyses, as it would be hugely encouraging news.