Covid-19 information - some statistics, models, and firsthand sources.

Maybe ten years ago this MD/statistics professor had his PhD students do a research project about medical research thinking it would verify the validity and reliability of modern medical research The results were opposite what they expected and sent the medical research world into chaos of controversy and a crisis of confidence

After many years the medical world is acknowledging the conclusions were right

Not sure why I didnt think to look up his views on this earlier He’s now at Stanford medical school and I hope I get the opportunity to meet him someday

This is him on covid

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Hope it’s a good read and you get something good out of it

I’m at work in the covid unit, somebody forgot I’m not supposed to be here and assigned me

Only places I feel safer are at home or in the surf lineup with other parents and their kids

Anybody who’s trading barbs about differences of opinion should cut it out, it’s otherwise one of the sanest threads in the forum

Yeah, that and associated video has been making the rounds since it was from mid March, and unfortunately the well respected doctor has abandoned the principles and methods that garnered him so much respect.
  https://undark.org/2020/04/24/john-ioannidis-covid-19-death-rate-critics/

Whaddya know, turns out a lot of health professionals disagree with those two Bakersfield clinic owners:

https://abc7.com/health/covid-19-stay-at-home-order-doctors-debate-when-ca-should-reopen/6132447/?fbclid=IwAR2F72KQqCuINlKGZ7IGk8raTZEj0ESFS7TjD1x0EE048F3fMSFYgN0PGTQ

Whaddya know, turns out a lot of health professionals disagree with those two Bakersfield clinic owners:

https://abc7.com/health/covid-19-stay-at-home-order-doctors-debate-when-ca-should-reopen/6132447/?fbclid=IwAR2F72KQqCuINlKGZ7IGk8raTZEj0ESFS7TjD1x0EE048F3fMSFYgN0PGTQ

And here's more. Check out this news report on the testing they were doing in Kern County over a month ago. Fast-forward to the 2:55 mark in the video to see who they were testing. Biased sample, and not applicable to the general population.

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-testing-available-kern-192655832.html

Whaddya know, turns out a lot of health professionals disagree with those two Bakersfield clinic owners:

https://abc7.com/health/covid-19-stay-at-home-order-doctors-debate-when-ca-should-reopen/6132447/?fbclid=IwAR2F72KQqCuINlKGZ7IGk8raTZEj0ESFS7TjD1x0EE048F3fMSFYgN0PGTQ

And here's more. Check out this news report on the testing they were doing in Kern County over a month ago. Fast-forward to the 2:55 mark in the video to see who they were testing. Biased sample, and not applicable to the general population.

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-testing-available-kern-192655832.html

Some people never got zero credit in algebra class for writing down the correct answer but not properly showing their work and it shows.

This might sound like a stupid question but what exactly is the science behind SIP?

None of the vague rationales stuff, just the science

Instead of asking a group of kayak anglers, I recommend typing "how is shelter in place effective" into a search engine and going from there. Lots of info out there to sift through.

Bluedot an ai company in Canada was able to use an algorithm back in December to provide an early warning

Don't you work at a hospital? Surely there are qualified people there who could answer your question.

No clayman, I can google as well as the next person

I’m asking here if anyone has any idea what the science is behind SIP

If you want the science behind infection control google that, there’s an abundance of it and I’m living by it right now

Any jackass can lay out a rationale that looks plausible, I’m wondering about the science

The science during the Black Plague was miasma theory but that was 500 years ago and they didn’t know any better

It’s a relevant question, a lot of attack on anyone who questions the soundness of SIP

Our family is now in real peril of losing one of two essential incomes, and if that happens we will lose our home

It would be nice to know a little about what the science is to justify that

Don't you work at a hospital? Surely there are qualified people there who could answer your question.

I can agree with Chris on this.
While I respect and appreciate bluekayak to share his experience and thoughts, because we do not agree with your view point you should not put your families' burden on us to expect answer your question for continuous arguments on Kayakfising Forum...?
 

SIP is more social science than hard science.  Ut as for the hard science aspects, it reduces contacts between people and the virus is unable to spread from person to person. Which you know and are well aware of. Is it the best or most efficient way?  That is a different question.

Or are you really questioning the efficacy of limiting contact as a means of preventing the spread of this virus?  Would you also like scientific data to prove that there was an increase in automobile fatalities after cars were invented?

Any jackass can lay out a rationale that looks plausible, I’m wondering about the science

...

The science during the Black Plague was miasma theory but that was 500 years ago and they didn’t know any better

...

It’s a relevant question, a lot of attack on anyone who questions the soundness of SIP
...

It’s a simple question, what is the science to support the draconian measures we’re living with? The closest anybody has come is that it’s an effort to keep people apart and lower the risk of infection, but that’s pretty obvious.

...

Bad thing to express opinions contrary to consensus right now, never should’ve gone there

Sigh.

1.  Miasma was thought to be a cause.  SIP is not thought to be the cause of COVID. 

2.  It’s not a simple question.  On the one hand you say it’s a simple question, then you say well yeah, it’s to keep people apart and lower the risk of infection which is obvious.  But if that isn’t the answer you are looking for then either the question isn’t simple or I do not understand it.

3.  No one attacked you and you aren’t a victim.  Do not make the vulgar mistake.

Bluekayak, you keep asking for the "science" behind SIP, but the gist of your posts seems to be asking more about the policies and politics surrounding it. I think, anyway...I'm still a bit confused as to what you're asking.

Regarding the latter, I'll take a wild stab in the dark as to why states are implementing "stay at home" policies instead of focusing on infection controls such as washing hands, masks, etc. They're taking the "stay at home" route because they're dealing with Americans in an age of extreme tribalism.

I keep comparing this crisis to what happened on 9/11 (only because it's the closest thing I can compare this to in my short lifetime). Back then, it seemed like everyone from all stripes of life wanted to band together and support one another to face down a common enemy, even if they lived nowhere near New York or the East Coast (ie, they only saw what was on the news). American flags were everywhere. Patriotism ran high.

Fast-forward to now: once again, we face a common enemy. But the unity ain't there like it was on 9/11. People have become so entrenched in their "tribes" (ie, far left, far right, etc.) that they don't want to give any perception that one "tribe" is "winning". If a left-wing politician asks their constituents to wear a mask, a big chunk of their right-wing constituents will call it BS and refuse to wear them. Similarly, if a right-wing governor relaxes restrictions on businesses, they'll see an outcry of resistance from their left-wing constituents.

If we carry that trend over to "requesting" that people wear masks and wash their hands (and do all of that properly), do you think all the "tribes" will go and do it? Yeah right. Instead, you'll get the tribe whose political stripes align with their politician to follow the guidelines, and the other tribe who despises that politician for whatever reason will flat-out refuse.

In terms of enforcement, it's probably a lot easier to enforce stay-at-home policies versus trusting that everyone uses their masks and washes their hands properly. There is still a huge chunk of the US population that continues to believe this whole thing is a hoax, along with another chunk that is unwilling or unable to pay attention. If 30-40% of the population doesn't know how or is unwilling to wear the masks or constantly forgets or refuses to wash their hands, how effective would infection control be across the country? Given you work in a hospital, you would be more familiar with this answer than me.

Because of that tribalism, we're now stuck with stay-at-home policies that, like you said, are having devastating effects on peoples' livelihoods.

Where do we go from here? I don't know. Nobody on this website knows. And I doubt most of our politicians know either. With all the tribalism these days, I think even an Independence Day-style alien invasion would still see a chunk of the population crying "fake news" as they watched cities crumble on their TV.


<Everything I posted above is not based on research or science. It's mostly opinion.>

Paul- First off, I’m sorry to hear about the hardships your family and friends are going through. Nobody deserves that...

As for the SIP orders, support them or don’t - even if you change every mind on this forum it’s not going to have much (if any) affect on when they are lifted.

You keep asking for the science behind SIP orders, but I think you already know it. It’s just so blatantly simple it lacks the complex mystique of hard science. We need to keep Person A’s slobber droplets away from Person B, and the simplest and most sure-fire way to do that is to keep Person A and Person B away from each other (and others) by sending them home.

 Is it a “hammer” approach when a “scalpel” might have worked? Maybe, but it IS working to some degree. The data shows that pretty clearly.

Rather than dwell on this disagreement about whether the SIP orders were the appropriate choice and when they should be lifted, maybe we should focus on things we can actually do to keep us and our families safe?

I would love to hear more about these simple infection control practices you advocate. If/when the SIP orders are lifted and the virus is still in our communities, it will be helpful to have first hand advice from a medical professional who has worked with this virus and avoided infection.

I'm just a passenger on the train but want to see the direction we're heading. here's a couple site I look at.

 One is just a manipulation of the data from the other. If these sites have already been posted herein, well here they are again.

https://calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/04/california-coronavirus-covid-patient-hospitalization-data-icu/

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ca.open.data#!/vizhome/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals

No clayman, I can google as well as the next person

I’m asking here if anyone has any idea what the science is behind SIP

If you want the science behind infection control google that, there’s an abundance of it and I’m living by it right now

Any jackass can lay out a rationale that looks plausible, I’m wondering about the science

The science during the Black Plague was miasma theory but that was 500 years ago and they didn’t know any better

It’s a relevant question, a lot of attack on anyone who questions the soundness of SIP

Our family is now in real peril of losing one of two essential incomes, and if that happens we will lose our home

It would be nice to know a little about what the science is to justify that

Don't you work at a hospital? Surely there are qualified people there who could answer your question.

I can agree with Chris on this.
While I respect and appreciate bluekayak to share his experience and thoughts, because we do not agree with your view point you should not put your families' burden on us to expect answer your question for continuous arguments on Kayakfising Forum...?

My family’s burdens are hardly unique right now, there are already millions in far worse circumstances because of this policy. Anything Ive said is just to get people to think a little about what’s going on, maybe consider that altering our current approach could result in less people ending up on the skids

It’s a simple question, what is the science to support the draconian measures we’re living with? The closest anybody has come is that it’s an effort to keep people apart and lower the risk of infection, but that’s pretty obvious. Unless the science is different than what is practiced in hospitals we have options

One of them is based in proven science, well proven in practice and at very low cost, involves some simple PPE and a little education

The other is highly questionable as to what it achieves in terms of infection control because of the gaps in public understanding that persist even after months of this, and has incalculable costs attached that will only get worse over time

Maybe as things roll closer to the edge people will see things a little differently. I dreamed up two days work and hired two guys I know who are out of work and can’t get relief. One of them is 72 and worked hard labor jobs his whole life and has nothing. Totally reliable guy and still works hard, just a little slower which he’s entitled to at age 72. Our city forbids him to work even though it’s perfectly safe. The other guy’s company was run off a job by the local police, with a little bit of caution it would be perfectly safe for them to work

If you were running a small business but didn’t get in line quickly enough, like the big corporations that got into the White House before it was even public news (McDonald’s jack in the box etc) sounds like there is no more money for them to hand out now. Hawaii is up to something like 70% unemployment and friends just told me you can’t get through to the UE office there anyway. Wait all day and then the website shuts at 11, start over the next day. I’m sure people in many other states are up against similar situations

This all makes perfect sense. Especially if you can do the same thing with a 17 cent mask, soap and water, and a little hand sanitizer

Bad thing to express opinions contrary to consensus right now, never should’ve gone there

I don’t see why it’s a bad thing to post opinions contrary to consensus, I think it’s generated a pretty thoughtful discussion. And I dont think the consensus is the best way to mitigate a novel infectious disease is SIP. I think the consensus is it’s best of the choices we had in March/April.

FWIW, I don’t disagree you, that there is abetter  way. I haven’t worked in 6 weeks and have a wife unable to work. This sucks.

But clayman is On Point, identity politics has made a refined approach more difficult, people are quite literally comparing a requirement to wear a piece of clothing in public (mask) to abortion fer chrissakes, but policy makers are slowly trying to put the mire refined approaches in place. And as I alluded to earlier the agencies and protocols we had in place to head off this very sort of phenomenon was dismantled in 2018.

So policy makers were left with few tools to work with. The science is distance prevents transmission, and in order to achieve that the SIP was ordered. My speculation is that it’s intent is to by time until contract tracing staff can be hired and testing capacity is at necessary levels, which are the most proven mitigation techniques in places like Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea etc.

Hopefully we will at least get our outdoor spaces back soon.

I'll continue to pummel that Kern County doctors video into the dirt:

https://thelogicofscience.com/2020/04/29/shoddy-statistics-and-false-claims-dr-erickson-dangerously-misled-the-public-on-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1G6S76R0_LQfFTaAXt4MbIdHA-Xy9tnwVWobWb9BAayz1My25oATjRjS0


Edit: I just noticed that even YouTube pulled the video off their site. Good riddance.