Covid-19 information - some statistics, models, and firsthand sources.

How about a one stop shop here for Covid-19 information, without any editorializing. The idea being to assimilate and disseminate information without bias.


Statistics:

Worldometer - global
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Worldometer - USA
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


LA Times - California
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/


Models for USA:

IMHE Covid-19 model updates
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates


IMHE Covid-19 model spreadsheet
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/summary_stats_deaths_April5release_April2release.xlsx


IMHE Covid-19 daily death predictions, USA and state by state.
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/comparing_dailydeathpredictions_byrelease_all_0.pdf



First hand sources:

Jan 20 Lancet article on first coronavirus cases in Wuhan. Important because first known case had no epidemiological connection to later cases from open air market.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext


2018 Chinese paper showing evidence suggesting direct bat->human SARS-CoV infection.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12250-018-0012-7


General info

MedCram Youtube Channel - general update information on the pandemic. Includes a lot of information on the mechanics of the disease

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG-iSMVtWbbwDDXgXXypARQ

 


those are many of the sources I have up right now.

they seem legit to me

Johns Hopkins:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Here's a site, pretty simplistic and after looking at it awhile I think it's pretty useless, except that it does have a link to it's raw data, which I use to do my own thing.  https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/ the link can be found in the text box that opens when you click the little ? in the upper left.

Do you know if any of the sites posted so far also offer their raw data, and how do I find it?

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/README.md - raw county data from NY Times.

covidtracking.com - testing data

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?%3Aembed=y&%3Adisplay_count=no&%3AshowVizHome=no - CALIFORNIA HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OPEN DATA PORTAL

Here's a site, pretty simplistic and after looking at it awhile I think it's pretty useless, except that it does have a link to it's raw data, which I use to do my own thing.  https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/ the link can be found in the text box that opens when you click the little ? in the upper left.

Do you know if any of the sites posted so far also offer their raw data, and how do I find it?

Worldometer does have links to their data sources. Drill down deep enough - World -> USA - California, and you'll see that the LA times page I also linked is one of their sources. The LA Times says it's doing it's own data collection to generate their numbers.

The IMHE raw numbers, generated by their model, is in their daily death predictions - the third IMHE link I posted. Remember, their numbers are predictive, not actual recorded data.



Thanks to all for playing along!!

I've added the MedCram YouTube channel to the OP. Just because Dr. Sehuelt (sp?) is such a good presenter on this topic.

Found this graphinc on how long the virus lives on a surface.  The article discussed that higher temp and humidity shortens the life of the virus whereas colder temps lengthen the life

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/one-chart-shows-how-long-the-coronavirus-lives-on-surfaces-like-cardboard-plastic-wood-and-steel/ar-BB11qzwr?fullscreen=true#image=2

I am genuinely interested in knowing why these places with such high population density and lots of travel between their countries and China were so much better prepared and able to control infection rates, and keep the blood flowing in their economies

I would exclude China from any analysis due to data quality.

There are tons of articles detailing how S.Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong's reaction (ready to act, and acted fast) has helped them to minimize impact. E.g. S.Korea and US had reported first cases on the same day, but reaction in US was slow and inadequate, and we see results.

Let me know if you need help finding links, I can PM them.

Another resource - official CA press releases. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020.aspx  It has a bit more details on testing, than https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?%3Aembed=y&%3Adisplay_count=no&%3AshowVizHome=no

Here is a site hosted by Cal State Northridge that colors the US by cases per capita.  It's a different way to look at the problem that I find more useful than always seeing high-population states as if they were on fire.  On the map, there are lots of small counties in places out side of CA and NY that are in trouble.  Also, clicking on a county provides detailed information on cases, deaths, hospital bed surplus/deficit.

Btw, I emailed with a cousin in Taiwan.  The Taiwanese government/healthcare system (it's a socialized healthcare system) issues 9 masks per adult every other week.  They're multi-layered cloth masks (not N95 AFAIK), but is a piece they're using that we haven't universally adopted yet.

Scott this is such a refreshing change of pace but...do (semi-rhetorical) questions count as editorializing?

For example: Why are the numbers so much better in some places (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc)than others(e.g. USA)?


If you want me to delete this just say the word, will be no hard feelings 

And Japan and the Philippines for that matter.

Non factual, semi-scientific wild assed guess to follow:

Part of it may be cultural - a bit more respect for authority. Wearing of masks in public is quite normal. Larger desire to fit in behaviorally with the society as a whole.  All the above are me stereotyping based on my limited experience in Asia. And it's not like the USA is at 1 and South Asia is at 10. But take all the slight differences, and how they affect the local R0, and maybe that takes you from 1200+ cases per 1M population to 200 cases per 1M population.

Part of it may be due to their having better intel. Taiwan especially.  I believe it highly likely that people with real sway in the government of these countries were getting a much more accurate assessment of what was happening in Hubei than what the CCP and WHO were saying.

End of speculation.

Just four weeks ago, the NBA stopped playing games and San Francisco banned gatherings of 1,000 or more (March 11)  If I am not mistaken, the Shelter in Place for the Bay Area started on March 16 or so...



Today's numbers for the US from the CDC. 

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†
Total cases: 395,011
Total deaths: 12,754
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands)

Paul - Without over-editorializing, I think its pretty clear that the countries that acted the most quickly and efficiently from the start are the ones who are doing best now.

The cat is out of the bag at this point, and we waited so long to react that the whole country is now roaming with kittens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One thing that I have found informative is to toggle between linear and logarithmic (actually semi-log) plots on the Worldometers page.

Recall from math class... Exponential data shows up as a straight line when viewed on a semi-log plot, and this is exactly what you’ll see in this dataset. The numbers of infected and dying people in this country are literally growing exponentially.

The most recent data shows, *maybe*, the slightest divergence from exponential growth behavior, but not much.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Scott this is such a refreshing change of pace but...do (semi-rhetorical) questions count as editorializing?

For example: Why are the numbers so much better in some places (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc)than others(e.g. USA)?


If you want me to delete this just say the word, will be no hard feelings 

And Japan and the Philippines for that matter.

Non factual, semi-scientific wild assed guess to follow:

Part of it may be cultural - a bit more respect for authority. Wearing of masks in public is quite normal. Larger desire to fit in behaviorally with the society as a whole.  All the above are me stereotyping based on my limited experience in Asia. And it's not like the USA is at 1 and South Asia is at 10. But take all the slight differences, and how they affect the local R0, and maybe that takes you from 1200+ cases per 1M population to 200 cases per 1M population.

Part of it may be due to their having better intel. Taiwan especially.  I believe it highly likely that people with real sway in the government of these countries were getting a much more accurate assessment of what was happening in Hubei than what the CCP and WHO were saying.

End of speculation.

SARS