Shelter Cove 3/14---3/16 "Gimme Shelter II"

I'm paying the price for not having been sick in ages...  Getting this sick causes a major re-evaluation of life priorities.  Maybe it's because I've sobered up for a week!     If I don't feel lots better by Wednesday I'm pulling the plug.  Humboldt's hospital beds have been all taken in recent weeks, and many folks have reported being down with this shit for 2-3 weeks.     Sorry to say it, but the ocean forecast is the shits for the entire weekend - again, just keeping it real for you, my brothers...  I'd lay at least 5:1 odds against any salmon fishing happening unless there's a miraculous change in the forecast.  Get good with this page http://www.garlic.com/~triblet/swell/abglance.html and you'll do yourself a service.  As much as I loved last year's get together, and all get togethers with you guys, it's very very hard to time a trip to the north coast this time of year and hit good weather, much less good ocean.  The good news:  the South Fork of the Eel is in great shape and I don't believe this week's rains are going to mess it up.  There are guides and such on the internet who have called out the SF Eel as "the best" place on the WEST COAST to fish steelies right now!  When the sun comes out this time of year it is actually really nice - I hung out on my patio in low 70's yesterday watching my kids play.  I'm f*%&ing pissed about having to post this, but it's only fair.  I admire anyone who's following through and going anyway.  I will do everything I can to make it down for the get together, and hopefully we get on the ocean, but bring your steelie gear and some heavier lead or sandbags for the shore fishing! 

   Eric the sick dog   

Major bummer about your cold man. But I can't blame you, because I am still getting over the crud that hit me last Sunday-Wed. For now, we'll list you as "Probable" on the Injury Report. Hopefully it doesn't downgrade to "Questionable" by game-time. You know we'll be pullin for ya!

I checked the bouy reports from the dates of our 2007 trip for a comparison. And it looks like it was about 7-10ft swell with approx 10-15 wind. And it was totally kayakable. What do you think the swell threshhold is Eric? About 12-13ft?
Seems like wind is just-as-much of a deterrent up there as swell height/intervals.

PK

Hey Eric-Sick Dog,

Get Well Soon! 2-3 week flu?  Yikes!

Wouldn't you feel worse if the sea conditions were going to be "salmon-perfect?"

I hope those who do go have a great time.  I had to cancel too, because of a new job, Saturday Eve.   I'll probably just yak and dive here in Mendocino for the weekend. Anyone care to join?  Cheers, All,   -Matt

I feel for ya, Eric.  I had it for three weeks, and it sucked.

I still went fishing, though.

Thanks for the encouragement, guys.   

PK - the higher the swell, the farther away from my area of expertise, because my M.O. is to study the forecasts and make time when it's flat.  That said, Sean and I hit it on Leap Day when the call was 6-8 or 7-9' west swell and it was fine.  I think 10' or more is pushing it, but you're also right that the wind is a major factor.  If it were 10' from the north and glassy I'd go out if the wind were not forecast to come up and the launch was clean.  More than 10' and you're getting into dangerous water.  With how the wind picks up or switches there you could be living a in a world of poop if whitecaps started rolling downhill on you in a bigger swell like that... 

This is what I'll be watching in the next two days (other than my phlegm levels!):  1) the satelite view - those two storms are pretty well defined, and there's not really room for high pressure to build in between.  My hope would be that the first one whips through and sucks the second one through much more quickly than the forecasters had anticipated.  2) the "abglance" page I referenced earlier - this Sunday morning view shows little pockets of green (7-9' water) showing up which indicates to me that the rough water is disippating that day - hopefully that happens earlier if the little storm gets sucked through more quickly; and 3) the daily updates by NWS/NOAA will often flip-flop all week, so sometimes you never know.  Hope is a good thing.   

...I know, I'm so long-winded...   

A bit more positive stuff to add:  the forecasts totally missed reality for the past few days and it was much flatter, drier, sunnier, and warmer than they'd called for.  Hope...   

Schedule conflicts are keeping me from going. Good luck guys! If there is a salmon season I will be up for april or May.

-Brian G

This post is for all the Fri Eel river runners. After conferring with a sickly but hopefully on the mend Abking, it looks the run from Landsdale to the forks will offer a good taste of redwood coast steelheading. Reports from guides and friends in the field are that the Eel is rockin. Pink corkies and roe bags are the prefered but k-11 kwikfish in gold, silver, and chartreuse are finding fish when free of angler pressure. If you're a flyguy this river will make you sing. Brad wigglers have done better from driftboats than by shore anglers so it stands to reason if AOTY is your goal you might want to break down river and drift that plug before 10 or so fools barrel on through the hole. It won't be every man for themselves though, we have to fish with a game plan in a group of any size. This pic below is one of the holes we'll be stopping at(does that count for aoty?) and the other is of MBYAKKER, shooting one of the rapids we'll see, on a trip last spring.

Nice photos, Hawk.  I'm thinking the Eel run may well be top-draw this weekend.

FYI:  that second photo of Hawk's is easily one of the "roughest" "whitewater" spots on the entire run - it's very very navigable water.  (that's about 1 to 1.5 miles downstream of Lansdale and just above Hidden Springs / Eagle Point - where I have seen a bald eagle too, btw).

Eric   

I'm still really wanting to do the Eel drift! I don't think the coming rains will do anything, except for maybe getting things wet a bit. Keep your fingers crossed.
I'm gonna try to go up thursday and maybe camp at Burlington, or get a room in Garberville, the nights' weather depending.
Landsdale to the Forks, right? I'm hoping for an early start.
Juan

Here is the current marine forecast for the Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena coast:

.THU...W WIND 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS. W SWELL 7 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 10 FT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT. W SWELL 15 FT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 20 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 3 FT...BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. W SWELL 14 FT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 6 TO 8 FT. NW SWELL 13 FT.

That looks really bad. Any thoughts?
PK

It does look bad . .I'm watching the weather but if it doesn't improve a lot then I might bail and try and pick a different weekend. 

Here is the current marine forecast for the Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena coast:

That looks really bad. Any thoughts?
PK

Pat -

Reports can be off and the cove should provide some protection. The steelhead reports sound good. We could fish steelhead fish all weekend if the swell is bad.

Scott

That does sound pretty discouraging, but I'm not counting it out yet.  It would be wise to have a plan B, though...  it's a long way to drive to Shelter Cove.

If the swell is still looking bad on THursday, I'd be up for a freshwater rendevous if anyone else is up for it...  rain or no.   

It does look bad . .I'm watching the weather but if it doesn't improve a lot then I might bail and try and pick a different weekend. 

I feel ya brother. Its 7+ hours for me and sackyak. But from Huntington beach...thats real far. A long way to drive for some shore-fishing in the rain....ehhhhhh.....