Novel Coronavirus impacts

So what's going on?

So what's going on?

Dang...thanks for posting.  I guess Oaktown didn’t get the memo with the 450 person sideshow...

So what's going on?

Yeah, what’s going on?! The weather forecast in Phoenix Arizona  shows sunny skies and temps
In the 80s, but it’s raining at my house and only 49 degrees! There must be a weather forecast conspiracy.

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

So what's going on?
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Preparing for the ones who won’t stay home. Hopefully most will stay home, and the few will not overwhelm our health care system like they have in Italy, Spain, New York, etc.

My sisters hospital in Orange County has had 4 positive cases since this started. She said others have more but nor crazy amounts. They are prepared for many more, but does not think they will come in the numbers expected.

Sort of a plan for the worst (like we do when we ocean kayak) and hope for the best scenario going on.

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

I can appreciate this. 

Everybody has a right to believe in whatever they choose to. Some believe in DNA, some in flat Earth. It's OK, as long as they don't cause harm to others (knowingly or unknowingly).

And as long as they own their decisions.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future.

Science can't predict unknown (it does not know enough about this coronavirus; there is new information coming every day). Science can't predict human behavior (in particular - stupidity). Math has correctly predicted exponential growth of deaths in regions with slow or no SIP.

Washington and California were quick enough to take actions which resulted in overall deaths growth slowing down. Compare to NYC, NJ, Michigan, and watch where new "hot" areas - Louisiana, Florida - are going to be in couple of days.

Here's resource with lots of data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

The difference between math and religion is that one is verifiable (falsifiable) whereas the other is not. The difference between those who can math and those who can’t is (in most cases) a matter of having put in the time and effort. The same can be said for the bench press. A reasonable person can’t expect to bench 200lbs without first putting in time and effort.

As for not predicting the future... epidemiologists have long predicted a pandemic just like this one.

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

The difference between math and religion is that one is verifiable (falsifiable) whereas the other is not. The difference between those who can math and those who can’t is (in most cases) a matter of having put in the time and effort. The same can be said for the bench press. A reasonable person can’t expect to bench 200lbs without first putting in time and effort.

As for not predicting the future... epidemiologists have long predicted a pandemic just like this one.

That’s just a theory though.

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

The difference between math and religion is that one is verifiable (falsifiable) whereas the other is not. The difference between those who can math and those who can’t is (in most cases) a matter of having put in the time and effort. The same can be said for the bench press. A reasonable person can’t expect to bench 200lbs without first putting in time and effort.

As for not predicting the future... epidemiologists have long predicted a pandemic just like this one.

That’s just a theory though.

Could be worse, could be just a hypothesis.

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

The difference between math and religion is that one is verifiable (falsifiable) whereas the other is not. The difference between those who can math and those who can’t is (in most cases) a matter of having put in the time and effort. The same can be said for the bench press. A reasonable person can’t expect to bench 200lbs without first putting in time and effort.

As for not predicting the future... epidemiologists have long predicted a pandemic just like this one.

That’s just a theory though.

Could be worse, could be just a hypothesis.

Or, just a bad idea all around.

Can I have a woosh!!

What’s happening is that rubes who suck at math and science will believe pretty much anything that fits their worldview.

Unless you have the training to do the math and science, you really have no choice but to believe whatever it is that fits your worldview. Unless you’ve done the math yourself you’re really just expressing your faith or lack of faith in the system. When that happens it’s more akin to competing religions. A bunch of people that don’t truly know what the answers are hating the other side for having a different faith.

It’s starting to look like the math and science hasn’t done a very accurate job of forecasting the future. I hope there will be more understanding of the human nature of the other side and less name calling so when this is over we aren’t divided for yet another reason.

The difference between math and religion is that one is verifiable (falsifiable) whereas the other is not. The difference between those who can math and those who can’t is (in most cases) a matter of having put in the time and effort. The same can be said for the bench press. A reasonable person can’t expect to bench 200lbs without first putting in time and effort.

As for not predicting the future... epidemiologists have long predicted a pandemic just like this one.

Verifiable yes and no. Covid modeling uses math but math is not its strength or weakness. Garbage in, garbage out. It is the estimates, guesses and suppositions that make or break the model. They use math but it’s not really a math problem. It’s more about how many a symptomatic people are spreading the virus. How well people avoid others. There is the human part of the equation that is not just a number.

Without trying to debate nature vs nurture I must disagree. The difference between those who can or can’t do math is not mostly effort. A person will never be a champion without putting in the effort. That does not mean effort is all it takes to be a champion. Ability plays a big part in the final outcome of whatever effort is expended. Whether or not someone puts in the effort is probably encoded in their dna and not really a choice. However it is easier to feel disdain for another point of view if we frame it in a context such as lack of character or effort. It is easier to call them rubes if we believe their positions rise from moral shortcomings.

Yes pandemics have long been predicted. That partly why I have lots of dried food, I bought TP before the rush and I got 150 N95 masks 8 years ago. That is not simply because I am good at math. No matter how good the math is, the model is bound to fail if it doesn’t make the correct guesses and assumptions about the human behaviors that are completely separate and apart from the math.