Covid-19 information - some statistics, models, and firsthand sources.

Anybody here speak German?

Enough to click the link that takes me to the English language article anyway.

I’m getting the German only version

Maybe they know I’m mostly French

My great grandfather was from Alsace and my last name is Alsatian. I went to the University of Salzburg a million years ago too. My German is about as good as my Spanish...

I think this is the English language link:

 https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/dawn-of-a-new-era-a-paradigm-shift-accelerated-by-coronavirus-a-5b12ce13-625c-42fe-bd22-07b77c0c4321

Still coming up German only

Did you click the button on the left?

More for the info junkies https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/

A different perspective than the media/gubbment sez

A different perspective than the media/gubbment sez

That is an excellent video. We are finally starting to get enough real data to make data driven decisions. It is a two part video so make sure you watch the ending.

Thanks Ken.  Watched all the way through part two and it is very good for my learning math wannabe brain.  Our immune systems are dying indoors.  I hope my business can open up soon and we all get haircuts...

A different perspective than the media/gubbment sez

I saw this video on Facebook earlier today. Since it seems to be making the rounds, I'll point out a key fallacy in the doctor's extrapolations.

The doctor's extrapolation on mortality and infection rates in the 4-7 minute mark (and again at the 10 minute mark) of the video is incorrect sampling. From what I've read online, in order to be tested in either CA or NY, you need to either show symptoms or have been in contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19. This already biases your sample towards those who are more likely to test positive. His extrapolation to the entire population only works if it's a truly random sample. Given that the sample is biased, his mortality extrapolations are also moot.

I'm not necessarily arguing his points, just the way he's going about trying to prove them. This is basic Stats 101 type stuff that any undergrad in a science field would understand before they can legally buy beer. He should know better.

That was my first thought also, Chris.  I was just posting the video to show there are different opions to the situation.  The daily updates from the different entities don't give an analysis that allows us to decipher what is going on for ourselves

Thanks Ken.  Watched all the way through part two and it is very good for my learning math wannabe brain.  Our immune systems are dying indoors.  I hope my business can open up soon and we all get haircuts...

hair cut !!! My barber is 80 y/o he ain`t opening for anything LOL    gonna set my trimmers on 3 or 4 and just go LOL 

I've seen some online home job doozies...don't go viral with your results...

That was my first thought also, Chris.  I was just posting the video to show there are different opions to the situation.  The daily updates from the different entities don't give an analysis that allows us to decipher what is going on for ourselves

This era of having all sorts of information at our fingertips is almost a double-edged sword: while it's good to be able to get news beyond mainstream media outlets, there's so much "stuff" out there on the internet regarding the pandemic, that it's difficult to know what's legit and what's not.

In all honesty, I hope the guy in the video is right, and that this is all overblown. But when I see a blatant error in basic statistics like what he makes in the first ten minutes of the video, it really kills his credibility. My Intro to Biometrics prof would've slapped me upside the head if I made the mistake the "doctor" makes in the video.

Thanks Ken.  Watched all the way through part two and it is very good for my learning math wannabe brain.  Our immune systems are dying indoors.  I hope my business can open up soon and we all get haircuts...

hair cut !!! My barber is 80 y/o he ain`t opening for anything LOL    gonna set my trimmers on 3 or 4 and just go LOL 

I've seen some online home job doozies...don't go viral with your results...

came out pretty well ....

Good thing she loves you just the way you are...

A different perspective than the media/gubbment sez

I saw this video on Facebook earlier today. Since it seems to be making the rounds, I'll point out a key fallacy in the doctor's extrapolations.

The doctor's extrapolation on mortality and infection rates in the 4-7 minute mark (and again at the 10 minute mark) of the video is incorrect sampling. From what I've read online, in order to be tested in either CA or NY, you need to either show symptoms or have been in contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19. This already biases your sample towards those who are more likely to test positive. His extrapolation to the entire population only works if it's a truly random sample. Given that the sample is biased, his mortality extrapolations are also moot.

I'm not necessarily arguing his points, just the way he's going about trying to prove them. This is basic Stats 101 type stuff that any undergrad in a science field would understand before they can legally buy beer. He should know better.

I agree with you, Chris. It was pretty painful to watch...

I love science and scientists! Glad you guys are watching and pointing out those items.

A different perspective than the media/gubbment sez

I saw this video on Facebook earlier today. Since it seems to be making the rounds, I'll point out a key fallacy in the doctor's extrapolations.

The doctor's extrapolation on mortality and infection rates in the 4-7 minute mark (and again at the 10 minute mark) of the video is incorrect sampling. From what I've read online, in order to be tested in either CA or NY, you need to either show symptoms or have been in contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19. This already biases your sample towards those who are more likely to test positive. His extrapolation to the entire population only works if it's a truly random sample. Given that the sample is biased, his mortality extrapolations are also moot.

I'm not necessarily arguing his points, just the way he's going about trying to prove them. This is basic Stats 101 type stuff that any undergrad in a science field would understand before they can legally buy beer. He should know better.

The doctors are arguing that the mortality rate is lower than the media suggests. You seem to be saying it is even lower than what the doctors are suggesting. You might be right, but that is an even stronger argument supporting there claim that the lockdown should be ended.