California’s Ocean Salmon Abundance Forecast for 2022

March 2, 2022

At the annual Salmon Information Meeting held virtually today, state and federal fishery scientists presented updates on the numbers of spawning salmon that returned to California’s rivers in 2021 and shared the expected abundance for the upcoming fishing season. The 2022 ocean abundance projection for Sacramento River fall Chinook, a main salmon stock harvested in California waters, is estimated at 396,500 adult salmon, higher than the 2021 forecasts. The Klamath River fall Chinook abundance forecast also came in slightly above the 2021 value, with 200,100 adult Klamath River fall Chinook salmon predicted to be in the ocean this year, a value that remains well below the stock’s historical levels.

During the meeting, recreational anglers and commercial salmon trollers provided comments and voiced concerns to a panel of fishery managers, scientists and industry representatives. Stakeholder input will be taken into consideration when developing three season alternatives during the March 8-14 Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) meeting. Final season regulations will be adopted at the April 6-13 PFMC meeting.

Following several years of poor returns to the Klamath River Basin, Klamath River fall Chinook salmon were declared overfished in 2018 and have not yet achieved a rebuilt status under the terms of the federal Salmon Fishery Management Plan. The PFMC may decide to take a conservative approach when crafting 2022 ocean salmon seasons to provide additional protective measures to this stock.

 To access materials and information presented at today’s meeting or to learn more about the salmon season setting process, please visit the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s (CDFW) Salmon Preseason Process web page ( https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001bEw6X-mZZhYqRX6pXK1Rpx1lukTpCmioGqywownCidWZsuzllzQmAw7zJ1fJLu6KZtFxbZxjXT94IKiL8VFvHQnEyFHS0Gc1syt7eUuaY42r8xmvbTKEfgqERIX8KGYZLRhoCrAhsCZm8xw7r7Ix-4onsetUMHKal2x3gTVKZs85TgX4-4XwTZNdvlJbiBFiIqhA9OZZ_Wa3FVstQMyQfg==&c=bHnToIAUv7EF9-4zFRC1R9fL97rLdNpzAruUDRh0at0o8XJoJDgHwg==&ch=BDRAoXzVyTa2wpXNyGaIJXlbtOKDOq6UhW5ZpuU6JPose_4fq2RWug== ). General ocean salmon fishing information can be found on CDFW’s Ocean Salmon Project web page ( https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001bEw6X-mZZhYqRX6pXK1Rpx1lukTpCmioGqywownCidWZsuzllzQmA8hDkFP5RM14p-rOYMmU4o6R2f7QKjinG2DQzQNxnHvEX9PrpPc73Df_pgpG4bB7mrDz1Ddj3kvQRH5eDbXWYgd4A5AxmxRWc6sQ-fEzJ90n2zUnMKnNo5UjxHRUBax6-FYYYRDUMdePYYymWTCfQOo=&c=bHnToIAUv7EF9-4zFRC1R9fL97rLdNpzAruUDRh0at0o8XJoJDgHwg==&ch=BDRAoXzVyTa2wpXNyGaIJXlbtOKDOq6UhW5ZpuU6JPose_4fq2RWug== )or by calling the CDFW Ocean Salmon Hotline at (707) 576-3429.

Thanks for sharing the great news Howard 

So, there are almost 600,000 salmon out there? I must really suck at salmon fishing...

So, there are almost 600,000 salmon out there? I must really suck at salmon fishing...

Well over.  That is just the Sac and Klamath.  It doesn't account for several rivers that contribute significantly.  The Eel, Smith and Rogue come close to doubling that number.  Plus more from a smattering of smaller waters.  There's at least a million fish out there.

There's at least a million fish out there.

A future conversation with my wife:

My wife : “so how did salmon fishing went today honey?”
Me : “I don’t know. They say there’s million of them out there. I must suck”

Thanks for that update Hojo. Appreciate all your fish and game updates.

The Eel, Smith and Rogue come close to doubling that number.

I wish that were true.  The Rogue was around 240,000 Fall Chinook a few years ago - I'd be surprised if it's over 200K right now.  The Smith might have between 10 and 15 thousand, and the Eel is down to less than 10 thousand. 

If you have any supporting docs I'd love to see them, but there's not a ton of info out there on these populations.

The Eel, Smith and Rogue come close to doubling that number.

I wish that were true.  The Rogue was around 240,000 Fall Chinook a few years ago - I'd be surprised if it's over 200K right now.  The Smith might have between 10 and 15 thousand, and the Eel is down to less than 10 thousand. 

If you have any supporting docs I'd love to see them, but there's not a ton of info out there on these populations.

Rogue 2022 forecast 246,000 pp. 22 here:

https://dfw.state.or.us/MRP/salmon/docs/2021_Escapements_and_2022_Forecasts_final.pdf

South migrating salmon (Umpqua river south to but excluding Klamath and excluding Rogue) is another 117,000. (Umpqua, sixes, elk, chetco, smith (California), pistol, winchuck, etc.)

Eel is around 10,000.

That's around 400,000, Klamath and Sac add around 600,000, we're at a million before we add in all the small california rivers that support small chinook runs. 

The final supporting docs should hit the PFMC briefing book webpage any day now, the meeting starts in a few days.  Oregon leaked the docs a few days ago.

I also tuned into the webcast yesterday and listened to about half of the presentation.  Very interesting discussion, and I'm a noob here so I may be missing some nuisances and perhaps some river nerds will correct me, but a couple of points that were made that were interesting to me and also encouraging for the upcoming season:

• 64% of the recreational catch for chinooks are hatchery fish!  That's good for fishermen, and we should encourage support for hatcheries! But it also means that only a third of the fish we caught were from natural origins.  That's pretty sad, and we should do our part to support conservation of natural environments to encourage natural spawns.  Interesting that its almost 50/50 for the commercial fleet however (and they catch way more fish)
• The abundance forecast for the fall run is 125,000 more than the 2021 forecast.  Based on modeling, the presenter suggested that the numbers are "unlikely to constrain 2022 fisheries" for the Sacramento River fall chinooks.  Fingers crossed that this means an earlier opening and longer season!!

"Natural origin" salmon aren't necessarily "native" salmon. The term applies to any salmon that wasn't born in a hatchery, and includes the progeny of hatchery-reared parents that happened to spawn in the river instead of a hatchery. For example, American River fall Chinook digging redds just downstream of Nimbus likely have at least some amount of hatchery fish genes in them.

CDFW's trucking and release of hatchery Chinook smolts by the Golden Gate Bridge plays a huge role in the Central Valley's boosted Chinook returns over the last few years. Tagging studies of juvenile Chinook migrating downstream from the hatcheries towards the ocean showed abysmal survival rates. This goes to show just how hostile the in-river conditions have become for juvenile Chinook salmon. While the trucking is proving effective for survival, the downside is that these fish are much more likely to "stray" into other waterways instead of heading to their home river. When they stray, they can dilute the gene pool of native salmon stocks and in the long run, hamper restoration of those native stocks. It's a tricky trade-off.

Similar to the last few years, the Klamath River will once again be the constraining stock for CA and Oregon Chinook fisheries. Given that the 2022 forecast for Klamath fall Chinook is similar to last year's forecast, the CA and Oregon Chinook ocean fishery seasons will likely be the same in 2022 as they were in 2021.

The 4yr old salmon returning to the Klamath did not meet 2021 predictions so it will factor in on the Ca salmon season too.

The following comes from our local rep for the salmon and other fisheries meetings:

I hate to bring bad news but the likely constraining factor for CA marine salmon fisheries this year with be the exploitation rate on Klamath 4 year old Chinook.  The Klamath 4 year olds are used as a surrogate for CA Coastal Chinook and their numbers are down from last year.  In addition the model has not been accurately forecasting the number of Klamath 4 year olds so there will likely be additional precautionary measures this year to restrain harvest to mandated levels. 

The virtual CA Salmon Informational Meeting was today from 10-4.  I wish I could deliver some promising news but I can't.  As I stated yesterday the Klamath 4 year old issue was likely to be a problem.  Today NMFS stated that because ocean fisheries had exceeded the post season forecast for the last four years (the models just missed the mark) they are implementing a 40% buffer on Klamath 4 year olds.  So roughly speaking our exploitation rate on this stock will drop from 16% to approximately 9.6%. 

In addition the models have been under forecasting the escapement Sacramento Fall Chinook for the last several years.  Model adjustments were made last year by shortening the input years utilized from 2014 to the present attempting to more accurately forecast escapement, it did not accomplish the goal.  This year the input years will be from 2015 to present.  The escapement range for the Sac Fall Chinook is 122-180K spawners.  If conditions are good and the model is performing well we are able to utilized the 122K number.  Today NMFS stated that the model was not delivering the necessary escapement so this year the escapement target would be at the "upper end of the conservation range".  A specific number was not given but it is likely to be at least 170K.  This however may not be an issue because we may run out of Klamath 4 year old impacts before we could utilize available Sac Fall Chinook.

I know this is not clear unless you are familiar with the PFMC process but trust me it is not the news we wanted.  We won't have anything specific until midway through the March PFMC meeting which is March 8-14th.
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The 4yr old salmon returning to the Klamath did not meet 2021 predictions so it will factor in on the Ca salmon season too.

The following comes from our local rep for the salmon and other fisheries meetings:

I hate to bring bad news but the likely constraining factor for CA marine salmon fisheries this year with be the exploitation rate on Klamath 4 year old Chinook.  The Klamath 4 year olds are used as a surrogate for CA Coastal Chinook and their numbers are down from last year.  In addition the model has not been accurately forecasting the number of Klamath 4 year olds so there will likely be additional precautionary measures this year to restrain harvest to mandated levels. 

The virtual CA Salmon Informational Meeting was today from 10-4.  I wish I could deliver some promising news but I can't.  As I stated yesterday the Klamath 4 year old issue was likely to be a problem.  Today NMFS stated that because ocean fisheries had exceeded the post season forecast for the last four years (the models just missed the mark) they are implementing a 40% buffer on Klamath 4 year olds.  So roughly speaking our exploitation rate on this stock will drop from 16% to approximately 9.6%. 

In addition the models have been under forecasting the escapement Sacramento Fall Chinook for the last several years.  Model adjustments were made last year by shortening the input years utilized from 2014 to the present attempting to more accurately forecast escapement, it did not accomplish the goal.  This year the input years will be from 2015 to present.  The escapement range for the Sac Fall Chinook is 122-180K spawners.  If conditions are good and the model is performing well we are able to utilized the 122K number.  Today NMFS stated that the model was not delivering the necessary escapement so this year the escapement target would be at the "upper end of the conservation range".  A specific number was not given but it is likely to be at least 170K.  This however may not be an issue because we may run out of Klamath 4 year old impacts before we could utilize available Sac Fall Chinook.

I know this is not clear unless you are familiar with the PFMC process but trust me it is not the news we wanted.  We won't have anything specific until midway through the March PFMC meeting which is March 8-14th.

Thanks Matanaska.  There was a question at the end of the call related to this, and I wasn't sure what the answer was either - but basically, in the figure I took, it states that there would be no constraints on the sacramento river fall chinook, but later, as a conclusion, they state that the CA coastal salmon fishery will be constrained (due to the Klamath numbers mentioned).  I guess we have to wait and see and hope that we have somewhat of an early opening....

Chris Wrote:

<snipped> . . . Tagging studies of juvenile Chinook migrating downstream from the hatcheries towards the ocean showed abysmal survival rates. This goes to show just how hostile the in-river conditions have become for juvenile Chinook salmon.

Main or most significant cause, stripers?

Chris Wrote:

<snipped> . . . Tagging studies of juvenile Chinook migrating downstream from the hatcheries towards the ocean showed abysmal survival rates. This goes to show just how hostile the in-river conditions have become for juvenile Chinook salmon.

Main or most significant cause, stripers?

Definitely multi-factorial. Could be stripers, black bass, pikeminnows, and avian/pinniped predation, but river conditions (esp water temp) could be what's really to blame.

Chris Wrote:

<snipped> . . . Tagging studies of juvenile Chinook migrating downstream from the hatcheries towards the ocean showed abysmal survival rates. This goes to show just how hostile the in-river conditions have become for juvenile Chinook salmon.

Main or most significant cause, stripers?

The study didn't pinpoint one particular cause. They released PIT-tagged smolts at various points through the Sacramento River, with receivers positioned at each point. The further upstream fish were released, the lower the likelihood they would be detected passing a receiver. I recall that every tagged smolt released above the Corning receiver was never heard from again...that was pretty startling.