How to identify unsafe conditions?

I haven't spent enough time in the ocean to identify when its unsafe for kayaks. Looking at these forecasts for this weekend:

https://magicseaweed.com/Linda-Mar-Pacifica-Surf-Report/819/

https://magicseaweed.com/Salmon-Creek-Surf-Report/306/

Are these conditions safe to go out in?

Are there any rule of thumbs you have for when it's unsafe?

for salmon creek yes to both days if im salmon trolling, 5@8 decreasing and 4.5@8 is fine but can get bad so cross ref a couple forecasts and check webcam. toop much up and down for nice rf. obv will not be able to launch salmon creek

LM too windy forecast sunday, looks fine sat dont know the surf launch though. also would not rf fish, too swelly, lose too much gear

It’s doable but personally I think these forecast are not ideal conditions. If it was just the swell then maybe okay but with that south wind added you can probably expect some white caping coming over your gunnel and a bumpy ride.

I prefer 1-3 ft swell @ 10+sec, little or no south wind at LM.

my rules are this:

Wind gets a 50% buffer:
So if the wind is 13mph on the forecast, I can expect it to gust around 18 or 19. Thats a No-Go for me!
7mph with a 50% buffer is like 11mph- no problem at all.
South wind always sucks

Swell height in Ft must be 50% or less of swell period in Sec:
If swell height is 6' i prefer a period of 12sec or longer, 3ft, 6 sec or longer.
I find that when swell height is greater than .5 of the period, it is very unpleasant and steep/fast swell.

Forecasts can be wrong, both directions good and worse.  Sometimes you have to go for a drive and see for yourself.  The more you go to specific spots the more you can identify windows and patterns.  I made a classic mistake looking at the forecast earlier this week and saw 1-2f and 5k wind, but launched late and missed the window, basically just did a lot of paddling 

I really don't care for Magicseaweed's reports - I've found them to be off the mark most of the time.

Surfline's are typically closer to reality - the free version gives you a couple day outlook as well as live cams for many breaks (linda mar, santa cruz, etc albeit with ads). The paid gives you a longer forecast window and unlimited ad-free streaming. Pay attention to the time winds and swells are supposed to change as well.

For a longer range general coastal forecast I've found this site to be pretty on the mark for the week ahead planning - http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/shortcast/ncal.html And it's free.

You'll find your comfort range after a while and there is no shame in putting an eye on conditions and turning around or bouncing to another location. If LM/Rockaway are too exposed check HMB and vice versa. Santa Cruz is an hour down the coast and an easy launch from the harbor or jump across the peninsula and hit the bay. Oyster point is a quick drive from Pacifica. You can often save a fishing day by being flexible and planning the alternatives ahead of time.

Cheers,
Brad

I really don't care for Magicseaweed's reports - I've found them to be off the mark most of the time.

we quickly learn the difference between swell and surf forecasts lol.

Up north MSW seems to be pretty good but there is a grey zone at around 4-6ft wave hieght either being chill or just crazy.

I look at MSW, Windy, Wunderground, and NOAA all week when I should be working.

Having to ask if they're safe/unsafe conditions should be a signal of some sorts, don;t you think?

You're close enough to the coast to check a forecast online then drive to your target spot(s) and see how the forecast relates to actual conditions.  That's the best way to learn how to relate forecasts to reality.

And always be prepared to arrive on site and decide it's not worth it.