Covid-19 information - some statistics, models, and firsthand sources.

Statistical analysis is an excellent tool when used appropriately. I believe in too many cases these days it is stretched beyond its capabilities. As science tries to answer questions about complex systems with minimal data, scientists are left with the need to fill in those holes with opinions and possible biases. I read an article about a researcher that was trying to reconfirm the results of studies on antidepressants. He was unable to reproduce the results. He described it like this. Imagine the data points on a graph looking something like the pattern from a shotgun blast. Then the researcher studies the pattern and “decides” which data points are meaningful and which data points are not. This is a judgement call and wasn’t reproducible in his study. He couldn’t confirm that the drug was effective. It was an indictment of using statistical analysis to determine the effectiveness of new medications.

Clearly the statistical models that were used to predict the future of the pandemic were wrong. I believe it was done with good intentions. The two doctors in the video reached conclusions based on improper assumptions. Maybe their results were right, maybe not. I’m sure they were including their personal on the job observations in their equations. I don’t see the value in celebrating models that were wrong by many orders of magnitude just because they followed a prescribed formula. All the while pounding into pudding models that are probably way more accurate simply because they didn’t follow the same methods that obtained totally wrong answers.

Reminds me of the movie with Russel Crowe.  "A Beautiful Mind"...

It’s been all panic from the start, and the costs of that will haunt us for a long time, not just economic ones

Anybody who doubts there are psychosocial costs to how we’re approaching this should rethink. Whatever the two docs in the video got wrong, that wasn’t one of them. Somebody else here talked about seeing more abuse cases etc, there’s nothing remotely questionable in that claim, it’s exactly the kind of thing you would expect in a society and economy under current circumstances. We’re seeing some of it where I work

If you think only about the already huge homeless population that didn’t exist just a few decades back, what will that problem be like now? California’s economy is bigger than a lot of nations, our unemployment money is now running in deficit. A family I know in Hawaii has no income right now and can’t even connect with their unemployment agency to file

Just for sake of comparison look at any country that kept their economy open, pick any of one of them and look at everything, control of infection rate, death rate, economic and social costs etc, vs what we are doing

If you still think “keeping the boot on the neck” is a good idea lay it all out for us. We had other options from the start

I’m fortunate to work in the business I do, it gives me perspectives I couldn’t get anywhere else. Research and stats etc have value for sure, we live by the science behind all of it. Most of the time we just have to act on what we see in front of us, questions are considered essential even in the thick of complicated emergencies But nobody’s arguing about stats or data or whatever

This is a situation where only a few lucky people will be immune to the economic aftermath

I guess that the culmination of the “models and data no bias” was to get hijacked by a small percentage of extremely vocal posters arguing that letting thousands of our most vulnerable neighbors die is a good thing because of “gubment boots on mah neck” seems a good enough reason for me to leave. I know no one likes to speak ill of other posters and there have been efforts to keep things civil and politics free but this shit keeps happening and it’s pretty f-ing tiring

lol

When you routinely refer to SIP guidelines as “boot on the neck” I don’t give you the benefit of the doubt as being a good faith actor.

You then proceed to describe SIP advocates as religious and “a good general thumb is don’t talk religion especially with the religious”

You’re outright dismissing anyone who would disagree with you and that doesn’t make me believe you’re a good faith actor.

All this and you still want your observations to weigh in as data in the unbiased data thread.

I had hopes that this thread would actually be a good resource to see what statistics folks were watching day to day but instead it got jacked by the usual crap which is why I commented.

Sorry that you had to bark back at the neighbors dog

Iochriminae I’ll step aside and let you have the mic

SIP has become too much like religion, and a good general rule of thumb is don’t talk religion especially with religious people

This approach comes with high costs to my family and thousands of others just like it, including all those I work with whose children are struggling to stay alive, so asking a few pertinent questions seems like a reasonable thing to me

Maybe NCKA ain’t the best place to do that, it’s the closest I get to any form of social media

So far it’s been reasonable to raise some questions even if they don’t fit everyone’s perspective, now it’s taking on a different flavor

Good luck

“Science” for some has become a religion. The holy man speaks and we must follow his commandments or be labeled a heretic. Often times they are best guesses that can’t yet be proven. We must follow their advice or 2,000,000 people will die. When proven wrong and the damage is done, it’s ok because it was the best available science. Most people can’t work the proof themselves but hold to a zealous belief anyway. A scientist said it, I believe it and that settles it. Faith in what the holy man says is all that is necessary.

In no way is this an attack on the scientific method. The scientific method may be the greatest thing human kind has produced. Unfortunately, too often these days it’s name is used in vain. Statistical analysis of weak data filled with holes can be passed off as science. Just ask if eggs are healthy and the answer changes every few years. If you’re building a rocket you must get it right before you fly. Repeatable, verifiable results before you sell tickets. Too often we ask science to answer questions that are outside our data set. Maybe because of ego or maybe financial desires, some scientists are unable to say “we can’t answer that question yet”. If the questions are about the beginning of the universe it doesn’t really matter. The answers to some questions put people’s lives at stake. We must demand a higher integrity from the scientific institutions that we will all rely on to survive into the future.

The sole reason for this was that parents had raided our supplies and the American public had hoarded the rest, like they did with toilet paper. Second week of May now and the hospital cant get enough, now the supply lines are dysfunctional as well. From what Ive heard in the news other hospitals are worse off than ours. Anybody here buy up masks in the past few months?

No....and I don’t know a single person who has a stash of them either.  I don’t see how the general public bares any responsibility for the shortcomings of your hospital. The entire world has been clamoring for masks, many of the largest Countries doing so months before this was on the average joe’s radar.  My assumption is that the general public has access to a small percentage of the masks out there, and I don’t have a problem with people trying to acquire them.  We’ve seen unprecedented levels of government enforced safety precautions, hysterical news reports bombarding us with plague level death estimates.....it’d be foolish to expect the public not to try to purchase self preservation equipment.

Seems Like you should be pointing  the finger at the hospital employees that stole your supplies and the hospital itself for being ill prepared for a situation like this.  Once this is over, I’d pull security footage and hand each of them a pink slip with a security escort off premises.

I guess there's a couple different ways to look at this story, so I present it for your viewing pleasure,

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/bay-area-doctor-documents-full-062750586.html

You guys know this was a thread about statistics, models, and firsthand sources, right?   

Sounds like you dudes need to get out and fish because this shit is just going in circles.  15 pages of bitching and pointing fingers.  This is why we need to keep this kind of shit and political stuff and especially, gun topics off NCKA! 

I know this thread was started with good intentions, BUT unfortunately, everyone got different opinions, PLUS there are some serious retards on here that help derail these threads too. 

You guys know this was a thread about statistics, models, and firsthand sources, right?   

Sounds like you dudes need to get out and fish because this shit is just going in circles.  15 pages of bitching and pointing fingers.  This is why we need to keep this kind of shit and political stuff and especially, gun topics off NCKA! 

I know this thread was started with good intentions, BUT unfortunately, everyone got different opinions, PLUS there are some serious retards on here that help derail these threads too.

Fuckin eh

Vitamin D is shown to help. No harm in taking a supplement.


https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-determines-severity-in-covid-19-researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/

Vitamin D deficiency is widespread amongst the whole populace anyway. It's the only supplement I take. Seems like most others just boost the cost of your urine.

Vitamin D deficiency is widespread amongst the whole populace anyway. It's the only supplement I take. Seems like most others just boost the cost of your urine.

D, K, Mg, B12 - prescription side effect management... fun times


With the way $$ flows in and out, extra vitamins to boost the value of what actually I piss away (v's metaphorical pissing away) calling it a hobby sounds better than simply popping pills.


8 weeks now, this shut down is growing long in the hair for sure.

I'm certainly not a pill guy, but my Dr did recommend a vitamin D supplement this year. Apparently as we age, we slowly lose the ability to process sunlight into D as efficiently as when we were younger.

In order to keep with the gloominess of your post your third point should state ...unless it comes with skin cancer.

Some positives are that county’s are starting to allow stores and restaurants to reopen. Also some beaches and launches are starting to open as well.

I appreciate your providing the stats as they are what they are. Good bad or ugly.