Making Sense of Conflicting Weather Forecasts

Hello y'all

I'm planning to trek out to the HMB jetties either on Saturday or Sunday, and I can't seem to make sense of these two contradicting weather forecasts.

On NOAA Marine is says "Saturday Variable winds 5 kt or less. Mostly cloudy. WNW swell 6 ft at 13 seconds becoming WSW. Wind waves around 1 ft." https://marine.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-122.48123&lat=37.49188

On the other hand, this article states that this weekend can see 25+ foot waves on the coast and jetties this weekend. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/45-foot-waves-could-hit-Bay-Area-coast-Super-13544498.php?fbclid=IwAR2vRRvd2sYN4DfHuL1gYupMDCIMS_ypZyKdJ-x3T48CMkLxpZ8_npzAXsE

Any advice? I'd love to hangout on the jetties this weekend.

If you look long enough, you can probably find a forecast that tells you whatever it is that you want the forecast to be. In this case, I think the surfing sites might be your best bet. According to surfline, the surf is humongous today (like 25'), but more reasonable on Saturday and Sunday:

https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/half-moon-bay/5842041f4e65fad6a770896f
 

Yeah,  nah. Not trusting a NOAA report when they aren’t getting paid.

Yeah,  nah. Not trusting a NOAA report when they aren’t getting paid.

Interesting. That never even occurred to me.
Thanks for that.

Yeah,  nah. Not trusting a NOAA report when they aren’t getting paid.

Interesting. That never even occurred to me.
Thanks for that.

Weather forecasts are unaffected.

Just gotta go out there. Can't always trust the weather forecast

Yeah,  nah. Not trusting a NOAA report when they aren’t getting paid.

Interesting. That never even occurred to me.
Thanks for that.

Weather forecasts are unaffected.

Wut.

The dudes that make the forecasts aren’t getting paid, but still have to work.

I dunno know bout anyone else, but for me if a guy isn’t getting paid I’m not relying on his work full stop.

Yeah,  nah. Not trusting a NOAA report when they aren’t getting paid.

Interesting. That never even occurred to me.
Thanks for that.

Weather forecasts are unaffected.

Wut.

The dudes that make the forecasts aren’t getting paid, but still have to work.

I dunno know bout anyone else, but for me if a guy isn’t getting paid I’m not relying on his work full stop.

“Essential” services continue and they get paid (worst case, maybe a slight delay). I was working for Uncle Sam during a couple of similar shutdown scenarios in the 90s. Seems to me that they ought to permanently shutter all of the non-essential services...

I was out at the jetties a few days ago and the waves were breaking over the top. Hopefully they're calmer this weekend.

Getting a little tiresome hearing federal employees are not getting paid.  FALSE!  Once the shutdown is over, their checks will be in the mail.  Those that did not report for work will still draw their base wage.  Ask yourself, when you work at a hourly rate, are you paid after each hour or paid after you complete your work pay period?  True, it can be rough on those living from paycheck to paycheck, but if you plan for a raining day, your savings might carry you through.

“Essential” services continue and they get paid (worst case, maybe a slight delay). I was working for Uncle Sam during a couple of similar shutdown scenarios in the 90s. Seems to me that they ought to permanently shutter all of the non-essential services...

Ohh....DeTECtive!!!

Lucifer

Ah, makes sense. I’ll postpone it until the next weekend then. Current seems too strong anyways. Not sure if anyone would be interested in a report (since it’s from a land) but I can post one up. Thanks everyone!

the giant wave forecast is from Friday. and is a general forecast.and it's from a newspaper reporter, not a meteorologist.  Probly got the info for their article on Thursday....And, we did have giant waves Thursday night and into Friday.

King tides are also expected to return this weekend, and they could cause minor flooding in coastal areas and low-lying elevations such as marshes, Schneider said.

On Friday, forecasters warned visitors to stay off the coast as large waves crashed on shore. Waves between 25 to 35 feet were expected to batter local shores, with “favored locations” expected to see occasional waves exceeding 45 feet, according to a high surf advisory from the National Weather Service.
Breaking waves between 17 to 21 feet were spotted along San Francisco’s coastline, along with open ocean waves around 15 feet, Mehle said.
“We’re still seeing very high surf impacting the coastline,” he said.

The NOAA Report is NOAA.  It's expert and it is updated often during each day. These are the meteorologists. Forecasts are just that:  forecasts.  Predictions.  Best estimate working with current conditions.  Usually fairly accurate.

On NOAA Marine is says "Saturday Variable winds 5 kt or less. Mostly cloudy. WNW swell 6 ft at 13 seconds becoming WSW. Wind waves around 1 ft."

*Notices:
This forecast is for a single location. For safety concerns, mariners should be aware of the weather over a larger area. Forecast information for a larger area can be found within the zone forecast and the NDFD graphics.

So, where was that forecast specifically for?

Best bet is collect a couple/few official type sites.  check them and compare to reality as time goes by you will learn how to interpret what they aer saying.

Use the seach function on this forum there have been many discussionds on where best to get and how to read the weather and ecean condition reports.

Bushy