Santa Cruz North Conditions 11/12/06 - Non-Yak

    I must have spent a half hour the other night reading how badly some people wanted to go crabbing this weekend, and at the end, it seemed that most had given it up due to weather reports.
    I had considered going out to fish, then let the thought pass, but I took a bike ride from Wilder Ranch to 4 Mile Beach from 11-2 (a 2-flatter!) and the conditions looked tolerable from the bluff.   Not that I'd have launched at 4-mile today, but outside the wind looked less than 10K and not choppy, though there was a good swell attracting a crowd of surfers at both 3-Mile and 4-Mile. 
    I'm trying to decide what factor to apply to marine forecasts - a 50% chance of up to 50% less severe conditions, but a 10% chance of 25 % worse ones? 
     
 

Speaking for the crowd that decided to sit this one out, it wasn't easy.  I'm looking at my brand new crab trap that looks really crabby and figured that it would be easy pickings on opening day.  Then looking at the wind and swell reports and not to mention the landlord factor at Bean Hollow, it didn't make sense.

During the past months I've been trying to correlate the wind and swell reports for the HMB buoy data vs what we saw at BH and it was close but it didn't mean that we couldn't get through the surf.  However, we weren't looking at 9 to 12 ft waves either.  There were days that some of us remember well where 5 ft waves would crush the unfortunate ones that were in its path.  I couldn't imagine doing very well with crab gear and fishing gear if I got caught up in a big wave and was flushed in one of those washing machine cycles.  It might make for a good story but I'm letting someone else tell it.

Anyway, my salute to those who made it out and came home without too much damage.    I'm waiting for better times.   

Gary

Wind was less than expected nearshore - < 15kts until 1pm yesterday. 
Wave height yesterday even at S buoy didn't reach 8' until 1pm. 
4-7 foot swells inside Monterey Bay.
The rain would have been a drag.
But with an umbrella, reasonably safe conditions yesterday.

Today, buoy reports at S buoy are ~ 12ft swells at 13 seconds.
Winds at MBM (bay buoy) today 6-9 kts.
Bay Swell 4-10 ft through tonight.

Swell and wind are up through Tues, then down Weds. (4-7', 5-10 kts) , but up again Thursday.

I am shooting for Weds...  somewhere...