Limited salmon season in '25

So, how will people specifically target Salmon? Is there bait or a technique exclusive to them? I know Rockfish like Squid and Shrimp, and Halibut like Trolling with Anchovies and Smelt. So what does Salmon like?

So, how will people specifically target Salmon? Is there bait or a technique exclusive to them? I know Rockfish like Squid and Shrimp, and Halibut like Trolling with Anchovies and Smelt. So what does Salmon like?

This is my salmon rig set up.

Meh. They should just leave it closed for the season.

Yeah, I kind of agree with this (though I might try to get it on the action). If there are so few wild salmon that we can only have a 7000 fish season, then why have a season at all?

On the other hand, the hatcheries continue to produce fish, but we can't fish for them because of this dwindling population of wild fish that the state won't take meaningful measures to protect and rebuild?
At a certain point, perhaps we should just throw the wild fishery to the wind and get our season back, based on the hatcheries/trucking-system.

Maybe clip 100% of the hatchery fish, and only allow clipped fish to be retained.

Those are my two polar-opposite views on the current state of the salmon fishery.

The problem is that there are non-clipped fish now counted towards to wild fish when they return. Moving towards a 100% marked fish is really going to show how low the wild stock there is. That might really get us into trouble of never able to fish for them again. I know this is a really complex matter and there is no one good solution.

The Pacific Coast Salmon FMP (Fishery Management Plan) can be found here: https://www.pcouncil.org/fishery-management-plan-and-amendments-3/

Annual fishery season alternative analyses and fishery reviews can be found here: https://www.pcouncil.org/salmon-management-documents/

The SRFC stock is a bit unique compared to most other salmon stocks, as both hatchery- and natural-origin (wild) SRFC are classified as the same fish. The problem right now is there aren't enough fish showing up at the hatcheries OR in the river. The natural-origin component historically makes up about half of the total SRFC production.

Simply put, we just need more fish coming back to the river AND the hatcheries. The number of fish returning to Coleman lately is abysmal.

For most of us those reports might as well be in Ancient Greek so translation into plain speak is helpful

One q I have is how much of this is about the water being sent south - significant amount of which is for sake of big corp farms(40%?) and bottlers vs what goes to the little family farms, drinking water and swimming pools etc

I’m a lifelong salmon guy and at this point feel pretty confident most of the wild runs will be killed off on our watch

Money being the big factor

Many stressors on Central Valley salmon, but a few of the big ones include:

Water management in favor of Big Ag continues to be the biggest constraint on the SRFC. This is the elephant in the room. Since fall-run Chinook are not listed under the federal ESA, they do not receive the protections of the ESA. This allows the Bureau of Reclamation and others to manipulate dam releases with no concerns of de-watering SRFC redds below the dams. In addition, Big Ag has powerful lobbyists and lawyers who aggressively fight in favor of water for Big Ag over salmon. Couple that with severe drought, and it decimates natural-origin Chinook in the rivers.

Another issue is seal/sea lion predation. Harbor seal and sea lion populations have exploded over the last decade. Even NOAA has acknowledged the impact of seal/sea lion predation on salmon in their 5-year status reviews on ESA-listed salmonids. Studies cited by NOAA claim that seals and sea lions eat up to 5x the smolt-to-adult salmon ratio (percentage of salmon smolts that survive to adulthood) compared to both the recreational and commercial fisheries' harvest of adult salmon combined! And those studies were conducted nearly ten years ago. Many of our harbors and docks are safe havens for seals and sea lions from their natural predators (which historically, included humans). There are efforts to amend the Marine Mammal Protection Act to address this issue, but it's hard to envision such a move passing through the federal Congress during these divisive times.

Climate change exacerbates all the stressors. Extended periods of severe drought impact the freshwater spawning and rearing habitats. But it also impacts ocean rearing conditions that are favorable for growing salmon. Shifts in the jet stream that diminish the sustained north winds required to promote ocean upwelling and plankton blooms results in little food available for growing salmon. A recent boom in sablefish abundance is also damaging salmon: juvenile sablefish eat the same foods that juvenile salmon need, and they're more voracious and effective at feeding than salmon.

I know that sounds all gloom n doom, but I don't think it means we throw in the towel. One positive with salmon are their short life spans. If given the right conditions in the fresh- and salt-water environments, the response is significant and rapid. Good water years coupled with favorable ocean-rearing conditions can equate to good adult salmon returns. If we can decrease the demand for SoCal almond exports overseas (a legit possibility given current politics) and amend the MMPA to allow some additional seal/sea lion culling, we can see some good salmon returns in the future. Would they match historic returns? Unlikely. But if we can hit those 2012-14 salmon numbers, that'd allow for a solid commercial and recreational fishery along with full seeding of natural habitat and hatchery egg take goals.

Are there also issues with hatchery management/transport of fish? Why does the Moke hatchery seem to do so well versus Coleman?

Moke trucks around predation and EBMUD/CDFW have enhanced their release strategy to include releasing pulse flows from Camanche Reservoir, releasing fish at night on full moons, and more. All to try their best to avoid peak predation and provide the best in river conditions possible given all the other constraints of operating water supply and flood control reservoirs. Coleman doesn’t or can’t do these things.

Coleman’s low returns the last few years are the result of poor in-river outmigration conditions (ie, drought) and the resulting trucking of Coleman smolts for release in the Bay. The trucking gets the smolts around the predators and Delta pumps, but it inhibits their ability to imprint on Sacramento River water. As a result, when they turn into adult salmon, they don’t know where to go to spawn. That’s why the local news stations will run stories on how salmon are showing up in various ditches and creeks around the Bay Area that don’t usually have salmon: they’re lost hatchery fish just looking for a place to try to spawn, gravitating towards whatever running freshwater they can find.

Regarding the Moke’s recent large returns in the last two years, it includes all of what DDtAM mentioned, plus the lack of fishing pressure on the stock in 2023-2024. The attraction flows from Camanche also likely attracted the attention of many of the lost Coleman trucked fish as well, so the total run consists of a mix of Moke-born and Coleman-born fish. Coleman fish that don’t return to the Sac or its tributaries do not count towards the Sac escapement goal.

Coleman can produce a lot of fish, but we can’t ignore the importance of successful spawning and rearing in the rivers. Check out the Natural Area fish numbers in the first table. Natural spawning in the Upper Sac, Feather, and American rivers combined usually far exceeds the total hatchery returns. The crappy Upper Sac natural area spawning success over the last few years is the result of the severe drought of 2020-2022, which included the de-watering of salmon redds by manipulation of dam releases (namely Keswick/Shasta).

Second table includes the San Joaquin run totals, which includes the Moke. While the Moke numbers stand out in that table, they’re usually dwarfed by the returns to the Sac and its tributaries.

Third attachment is Sac River escapement graph, because graphs are easier on the eyes than tables  .

That’s why the local news stations will run stories on how salmon are showing up in various ditches and creeks around the Bay Area that don’t usually have salmon: they’re lost hatchery fish just looking for a place to try to spawn, gravitating towards whatever running freshwater they can find.

Love the rest of what you wrote.  Wanted to point out there they are more and more cases natural returns to the local ditches.  There was already some, but the strays must be seeding more as their young imprint on the "new" streams.

-Allen

Love the rest of what you wrote.  Wanted to point out there they are more and more cases natural returns to the local ditches.  There was already some, but the strays must be seeding more as their young imprint on the "new" streams.

-Allen

Yep.  South Bay Clean Creeks Coalition (SBCCC) has a great Facebook page.  They've been dedicated to tracking Chinook on the Guadulupe River and tribs (downtown San Jose and surrounding urban areas) for some years now.  They're getting genetics back from Davis showing that they're producing some of their own fish, even though it's figured that much of their run is Sac strays.

Bring them back to wherever they can spawn, but definitely keep an eye on whether it's a place that can successfully recruit and sustain generations of fish.  If all of the places have standards for water quality, good perennial flows, a culture of protection and celebration around the fish...then it can happen.  It's up to the People, mainly.

Appreciate the info, Pole and Eric!

Bring them back to wherever they can spawn, but definitely keep an eye on whether it's a place that can successfully recruit and sustain generations of fish.  If all of the places have standards for water quality, good perennial flows, a culture of protection and celebration around the fish...then it can happen.  It's up to the People, mainly.

That's the jam. Climate change modeling paints a grim picture for many of these smaller streams in their ability to sustain salmon going into the future. Elevated summer water temperatures and increased drought frequency are the primary constraints. If the juveniles can seek shelter in coldwater refugia, they might weather the hot temps...the refugia can consist of spring/groundwater upwellings, or even reservoir releases from the bottoms of dams (Berryessa/Putah Creek situation).

Up here in Oregon, an example of successful establishment of a wild run via hatchery progeny is coho salmon in the Willamette River. The Willamette historically did not support native coho, but ODFW planted coho in many of its tribs. The planting was stopped decades ago, but the last returning hatchery fish successfully spawned in many of the tribs. Fast-forward to today, and the Willamette is seeing record returns of 40-50k "wild" coho each fall. It's a cool example of the adaptability of salmon when given the right conditions for successful spawning, rearing, and outmigration.

Would some of the Bay Area creeks produce a similar situation as the coho in the Willamette? I've read the articles about the Putah Creek situation, which seems promising. I don't know the carrying capacity for Chinook in Putah Creek.

Love the rest of what you wrote.  Wanted to point out there they are more and more cases natural returns to the local ditches.  There was already some, but the strays must be seeding more as their young imprint on the "new" streams.

-Allen

Yep.  South Bay Clean Creeks Coalition (SBCCC) has a great Facebook page.  They've been dedicated to tracking Chinook on the Guadulupe River and tribs (downtown San Jose and surrounding urban areas) for some years now.  They're getting genetics back from Davis showing that they're producing some of their own fish, even though it's figured that much of their run is Sac strays.

Bring them back to wherever they can spawn, but definitely keep an eye on whether it's a place that can successfully recruit and sustain generations of fish.  If all of the places have standards for water quality, good perennial flows, a culture of protection and celebration around the fish...then it can happen.  It's up to the People, mainly.

I follow SBCCC and have participated in watershed cleanups.  I can walk 1/2 mile from my house to the Guadalupe River and 1/2 mile the other direction to Los Gatos Creek.  I've watched salmon in both.

I remember 30 years ago, there used to be problems with the homeless building weirs out of shopping carts to catch salmon.  Haven't seen those around in awhile.

-Allen

Appreciate the info, Pole and Eric!

Bring them back to wherever they can spawn, but definitely keep an eye on whether it's a place that can successfully recruit and sustain generations of fish.  If all of the places have standards for water quality, good perennial flows, a culture of protection and celebration around the fish...then it can happen.  It's up to the People, mainly.

That's the jam. Climate change modeling paints a grim picture for many of these smaller streams in their ability to sustain salmon going into the future. Elevated summer water temperatures and increased drought frequency are the primary constraints. If the juveniles can seek shelter in coldwater refugia, they might weather the hot temps...the refugia can consist of spring/groundwater upwellings, or even reservoir releases from the bottoms of dams (Berryessa/Putah Creek situation).

The recent returns of salmon to the South Bay creeks correspond with the drought ending and the local percolation ponds being able to remain full through the summer.  These ponds keep the ground water levels high, which results in a cooling effect on the creeks.  I think ...

-Allen

We grew up running up and down maybe the only unpaved creek in the sf bay area

Later on one of the kids i worked with came up from the creek saying there was a big fish in the creek. A few of us followed her down and sure enough there was a steelhead flopping in a few inches of water

The upper end of that creek runs through a nice little league park

One year the parents got tired of rinsing their nice cars and sprayed something nasty on the dirt parking lot to keep the dust down, which then ran off into the creek and killed the run

Amazing these fish can still survive given what theyre up against