Acceptable forecast for beginners

I’m looking at HMB for tomorrow with a swell of 6’ and 3 knots of wind, are those acceptable conditions for a beginner there?
It seems ok to me (would prefer smaller swell), but it would be my first time there and I would value a second opinion 😁

Hi.  I saw 6ft at 13 seconds which fits the period twice as high as the swell, which makes for a smoother swell height transition.  For me, that's a little tall for my taste regardless of period timing.  You do have the lack of wind as a huge advantage.  If I was a newb, I'd go, get on the water, and make a decision out there.  You'll find out quick if you're gonna throw up...not sure this helps...

Wow, did not know the swell/period rule, thanks! That’s a wise suggestion, I should check it out

If swell period in seconds <= .5(swell height in feet) and swell height in feet + wind in knots <= 15 then fish, else beer.

If swell period in seconds <= .5(swell height in feet) and swell height in feet + wind in knots <= 15 then fish, else beer.

Is it >= ? Useful heuristic!

The direction of the swell can make a big difference, which varies from port to port.  If it's a north or NW swell (typical summer/high pressure pattern) then much of it will be blocked by prominent landforms north and west of port.  At Shelter Cove (my main destination), a 6' north or NW might translate to almost nothing on the fishing grounds within a mile of launch.

You are wise to reach out for advice, and going there to see how things look, always correlating that to the various forecasts you looked at, and dedicating yourself to learning the typical manifestations of those various and varying forecasts is the way to develop some level of expertise with all of it.  Of course, on any day the forecast may not resemble the forecasts, and things can change quickly out there.  The best/most reliable forecasts are those that show trends - not little windows.

Best of luck~   

The direction of the swell can make a big difference, which varies from port to port. 

going there to see how things look, always correlating that to the various forecasts you looked at, and dedicating yourself to learning

things can change quickly out there.

This is how you learn what is an acceptable forcast. Even if you don't go you can read the forecast and then compare to what the folks that went report and that is also helpful but not as direct a way to learn.

Tomorrow should be down a foot maybe but this is what the swell period got us today

That’s in Santa Cruz today

We talked with 3 of the rescue folks there this morning and they said they bring in lots of yakkers

We had the same conversation w the guys at Princeton harbor maybe 2 years ago and they said the same - “all the time”

I have the impression there are a lot more rescues than you here about on ncka

The direction of the swell can make a big difference ...

In Santa Cruz, a long period swell out of the south means big surf, and in those conditions, it'll (usually) be difficult to catch much...

Tomorrow should be down a foot maybe but this is what the swell period got us today

Damn, the forecast is 7ft, just based on that number I would not expect such conditions. I guess it’s a surf lunch there?
I ended up not going today for other reasons, but I’ll make a mental note about always comparing forecast with how it actually feels and start building my mental map. Also thanks, didn’t think the swell direction has such a big impact. What do you guys use for forecasting?

Swell height and period is always important but it is more important when you’re launching and landing on the beach. At HMB you can launch in the harbor so you don’t have to deal with the swell breaking on the beach. Another important thing is the secondary swell. A lot of forecasts don’t show it. I went to Albion Saturday and there was a 7ft swell at 14 sec and a secondary swell of 5ft at 4 sec. It was a real washing machine. I think it’s the two swells together that add up to your likelihood of getting seasick.

I use Willy Weather and this web site.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.48292&lon=-122.48026&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=digital

Another important thing is the secondary swell. A lot of forecasts don’t show it. I went to Albion Saturday and there was a 7ft swell at 14 sec and a secondary swell of 5ft at 4 sec. It was a real washing machine. I think it’s the two swells together that add up to your likelihood of getting seasick.

Never even heard about the secondary swell, but it makes a lot of sense! I use Windy and I don’t have the secondary swell there

Using a variety of forecast products is the way.

I look at National Weather Service (NWS) first - it gives a general forecast for areas between prominent points, out to 10 nautical miles and out to 60 nautical miles.  Seeing what is possible and what is expected in that zone out to 10 miles is so important, because any of it could make it to shore, and much of it isn't expected to.

I also use Windy (for wind, specifically), but it can be way off for local areas - I like the larger area, general views.  Look at it, compare it to what happens on the ground in front of you, and remember how and when it can be useful or how and when it can be misleading.

I love Stormsurf and have used it for years.  It is one of the last free products that gives a consistently reliable general overview of surf, wind, swell...etc.  There are also specific area graphs available at the bottom of the page.  Point Delgada (Shelter Cove) and Cape Mendocino are on there, and they do a damn good job of giving an accurate assessment of wind, swell, period, and specific hours that those variables will be fishable or not.

There are tons more products out there.  I advise to find at least 3 that you like, and use them heavily.  If they're useful (match what you see more often than not), then you'll keep using them, and if they suck, drop them!  I'm pretty sure that the sites and their effectiveness will vary from port to port, so there is likely a specific suite of forecast products that's best for the Bay, Monterey, Marin, Sonoma, Mendo, Humboldt...etc.

I can honestly say that this focus - learning to access, study and quality check different forecast products - is an extremely important part of the kayak fishing lifestyle that will bear out whether you are dedicated to finding success in this sport or not.  It's that simple.

I'm excited for you, starting out on this journey of discovery!  Keep us posted on your progress, and I look forward to meeting you on the water.