Monterey Bay Conditions - Go/No Go Decision

I've both sailed and fished the ocean.  I had rules of thumb about go/no go based on height, duration and wind.  I fished and sailed Monterey Bay and all the radar images, forecasts and buoy reports really helped.  When in doubt I always walked.  Do you guys have any kayak specific rules of thumb you use for making go/no go decisions before leaving home and after arriving?

Tom

Welcome aboard Tom.  My rules of thumb is not go out when the wind is over 10mph or the surf is unsafe to launch.  On several occasions,  I've aborted the kayak fishing plan at the launch site due the inaccurate weather forecast. 

Absolutely    I look at all weather data I can for planning a trip to the ocean.  But sometimes I have to drive all the way out there to see it for myself.  Then it turns into a long trip to get breakfast and chill on the coast 

Best thing to do is always have a plan B. If you decide to make a long drive to the coast, make sure you have other plans if the ocean does not pan out. You can always scout for a more sheltered area or perhaps just get the surf gear  out , the lawn chair and cooler full of the good stuff and and fish n' Chill 

if the forecast swell is NW or west and 6 feet or less, I will go.  wind waves less than 3 I go.  Wind less than 10, I go.  Anything past that I may go, but decide after looking at the conditions.  Especially in wind, you want to think about getting back to your launch and knowing places to bail to if you cannot get back.

I have seen wind that makes it damn near impossible to paddle into, so wind more than swell is what makes me decide to go get some coffee and read the paper.

All of the other replies are great. All I have to add are the following three links. The first one is a colored wave height graph. When it's purple near shore.....then if I can go.....I do. The second one, IWindsurf.com, has good wind forecast meteogram charts with data for every couple hours so you can have a better idea exactly when the afternoon winds are going to come up etc. Also pays to look at when the winds ramped up the day before and that data is also available on IWindsurf. The third one is StormSurf.com and can give you a good idea when new swells are forecast to arrive on the coast. Not precise, and in my experience they usually come sooner than forecast, but worth looking at.

http://www.lajollasurf.org/nocal.html

http://www.iwindsurf.com/

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml

It seems like about 2/3rds the limits I was looking for when I used to take my boat.  Thanks for all the good information.  This site rocks.

great advice from all until you are at the Albion open then it is survival of the seas! At least we have some great support and is always great to fish with a mass.

When you are paddling out; If the waves breaking at the beach are over your head, then you may be in over your head

"When you are paddling out; If the waves breaking at the beach are over your head, then you may be in over your head"

 

First smile of the day.  I love this site.

Tom

The second one, IWindsurf.com, has good wind forecast meteogram charts with data for every couple hours so you can have a better idea exactly when the afternoon winds are going to come up etc. Also pays to look at when the winds ramped up the day before and that data is also available on IWindsurf.

How accurate are the iWindSurf forecasts in your experience. The reason I ask is they cover San Luis and although it's now a hour drive for me (versus a lot longer when I lived in Santa Clara because of traffic) I'd still like to plan my trips around accurate wind forecasts. When it blows there —it really blows. Of course one can always fish from shore for Black Bass with Senkos if the wind doesn't cooperate, but fly fishing for Stripers is why I go there.

I have been using it for Berryessa and find it to be better than 50% accurate. 

Maybe 75%? Like today it said it would be less than 6kts or so & it was. But I've been there when it came up and blew sooner than the forecast had indicated cutting my day short. Give it a try. Anything to help get OTW more. 

I'm in San Luis and can actually see the bay/ocean from my living room window. If it's white capping visibly, I don't go. I surf and am very confident about my ability to launch in the surf, but if it's bad beyond the break then it's a no go. I probably won't go out if wind is over 12mph - and the past 2 weeks it has been.

On a side note, Marmot we've got to go out some time, I'm really interested in checking out fly fishing and would love to see it done on the ocean.

The iwindsurf site is probably one of the most-accurate wind predictors for San Luis Reservoir (not SLO madcat). It has been a great resource for me. I normally use it for coastal wind forecasts, but I'm familiar w/San Luis wind issues and I've heard more than a few anglers praise iwindsurf. Marmot, let's plan to hit San Luis or Forebay in late Sept/Oct man.

I have been using it for Berryessa and find it to be better than 50% accurate. 

Maybe 75%? Like today it said it would be less than 6kts or so & it was. But I've been there when it came up and blew sooner than the forecast had indicated cutting my day short. Give it a try. Anything to help get OTW more. 

What info or section on iwindsurf.com do you find helpful for Lake Berryessa? Thanks Ken