Another help reading the weather forecast post for my first outing

I was thinking heading out of Half Moon bay would be my best bet for a first outing, but I wanted to get some advice on the wind and swell forecast.  To me 6ft @ 7 seconds sounds pretty bad, so I don't think I should go this weekend, but I was curious what limits folks set for themselves when it comes to the forecast and when is it too rough to head out?  Thanks!

Hi Brad,
I am also a newbie....but I have heard that if you combine swell and wind and if combined over 10 then probably should avoid or think twice..... depends on how seasoned you are and the place as some areas are more protected that others.

I do not have it down myself so watching this.

I use windy for winds but sometimes it is wrong..... went to Richmond Ferry point once that was supposed to be 3 mph winds and found the site conditions more like 13 with gusts of 20 and a pretty cut up bay decided to go home back to bed.

troy

If swell period in seconds <= .5(swell height in feet) and swell height in feet + wind in knots <= 15 then fish, else beer.

That’s the super rough back of the napkin calculation. It’s pretty conservative but it’s not a bad formula if you don’t have any other point of reference and I think it's a pretty good guide for new kayakers.

I'm a 4 ft 10 second kinda  yaker.   3 ft or less is even better. 

If swell period in seconds <= .5(swell height in feet) and swell height in feet + wind in knots <= 15 then fish, else beer.

That’s the super rough back of the napkin calculation. It’s pretty conservative but it’s not a bad formula if you don’t have any other point of reference and I think it's a pretty good guide for new kayakers.

Thank you for the advice!  I like having some sort of formula, did you get the inequality backwards though?
2 ft 10 seconds would be good conditions I think, but
 10 <= 0.5(2) fails

did you get the inequality backwards though?

no, I messed it up worse than that.

Swell feet in height <= one half * swell period in seconds.

5 ft at 10 seconds is good.

4 ft at 6 seconds is bad.

I'm a 4 ft 10 second kinda  yaker.   3 ft or less is even better.

Yeah buddy, 10kts or less on wind,  that's my window as well...swell on Monday at HMB is 5ft @ 8 and I'm thinking not so pleasant...nice Hali's by the way...good stuff!

did you get the inequality backwards though?

no, I messed it up worse than that.

Swell feet in height <= one half * swell period in seconds.

5 ft at 10 seconds is good.

4 ft at 6 seconds is bad.

Ah I see, this is just what I was looking for to get a rough idea thank you!  so in this case the forecast saying 6ft 7 seconds is no good, looks like another weekend bass fishing might be in my future in that case

Santa Cruz is flat and low wind with a chance of a giant predator following you.  Screw the bass, get some halibut and a new pair of pants! 

5' at ten seconds meams there is a signicant ground swell from old waves from far away. Usually the wave sets could  have  minutes between sets. Good for surfers. Good at PP also as long as you stay away from shallow water. Rookies might take a right at the jaws thinking it looks good. A set could come in and surprise you when you're over a reef and it's a yard sale. Ever been out in the ocean and have other boats disappear and reappear, even though it very calm? That's a ground swell. All you have to do is stay away from boat traffic, especially at the jaws and troll down to the bouys. That's why they are there, all boats are supposed to go down there before they take a right. Five feet five seconds are smaller local waves that are close together. Not to bad but could be a pain. The further south you go the more you are exposed from the protection from Pillar Point. Again, to make my point, Five feet 20 seconds, waves could be as big as a house. It's not the same now, but the wind always use to kick up about eleven. Can be some work paddling north against it. Big tides this weekend too.

Santa Cruz is flat and low wind with a chance of a giant predator following you.  Screw the bass, get some halibut and a new pair of pants! 

What's the fun in fishing if the fish can't fight back?

There's no substitute for reading multiple forecast pages and then seeing with your own eyes what materialized compared to what was forecast.  Over and over for years.  This is what must be done in order to understand what the forecast pages are talking about.

I look at the National Weather Service first.  It gives the forecast for up to 10 miles out, along a section of coastline that's usually well over 100 miles.  This helps you to know what's happening in the larger area, because things that are supposed to only affect the offshore waters may come in unexpectedly - you want to know whether something's there or not.  It's also very important to look at multiple days of forecasts around your target to see what the trend is.

I look at Windy.com, Magic Seaweed and Stormsurf too.  They all have their strengths and weaknesses.  When all of the pages agree on trends and special conditions (like flat-ass-calm or FAC), there's a good bet that it will materialize.  When they all disagree, someone's going to be more right, and you come to know which ones are more reliable in different situations and for different parts of the forecast structure.

For instance, I've seen many times that the NWS will call for one thing, and Stormsurf calls for another.  I've watched as the target date comes, and NWS will come around to what Stormsurf was saying days earlier.  It's not always the case, and sometimes (not often), it's the other way around.

Consistency in forecasting has gotten tougher, and I think it's likely a result of climate change.  The same things that are messing up our rainfall patterns along the north coast (jet stream issues, generally) seem to also be changing the summer wind patterns.  I predict that we'll continue to see less consistent patterns in our local waters.

Best of luck~

Comparing forecasts like Eric said is pretty important.

I think certain sites are better for certain launches.  I personally like WillyWeather for wind as it will tell you where the wind data is coming from.  It's surprising how some wind data is coming from far away, while others is close by.  They also plot an actual vs. predicted so you can get an idea of how good the prediction is for that weather system.  Some weather patterns are hard to predict such as South wind.  I then compare WillyWeather to others like PredictWind.

10mph is a good limit on comfortableness.

I use MagicSeaWeed for surf/swell.

Biggest issue I see for HMB this weekend is wind, but that does appear to be lowering, along with fast current and short period.  Definitely not a beginner day,  I would pick a different day for a first outing.

Would I go out?  I'm thinking about it, but fully aware that it might be shitty conditions.