What is considered unsafe sea condition?

My quick and dirty formula:

If wind speed in kts + wave height in feet <=15; and
waves in ft <= (wave period in seconds)/2,
then fish
else beer.

I've fished in way worse than that but it's decent enough till you get your sea legs and figure it out yourself. 

My quick and dirty formula:

If wind speed in kts + wave height in feet <=15; and
waves in ft <= (wave period in seconds)/2,
then fish
else beer.

I've fished in way worse than that but it's decent enough till you get your sea legs and figure it out yourself.

Nice formula.  I could get behind this!

-Allen

What do you all think about the accuracy of the NOAA marine forecasts? I had a day recently where the NOAA forecast (point specific) was calling for 15knts of wind. When I got to the spot in the morning (just planned to fish off the rocks on account of the forecast), it was actually almost perfectly calm. The wind did pick up by the afternoon by 1 or 2pm.

On a related note - I have been looking at the PredictWind.com program. It shows wind forecasts based on a few different models and has a nice graphic display. It lets you look at predictions from two different models at once on the same screen. Sometimes the different models seem to all agree very well, but other times, they give wildly different predictions.

I guess if the forecasts give a prediction for high winds/swells and it turns out to be wrong, your biggest complaint is you might have missed out on a good day. But if the forecasts are showing favorable conditions but that turns out not to be the case, you could have bigger problems.

Windy, Windfinder, MagicSeaweed all use different models and can have different results. They also are tailored for different markets. MSW is really for surfers. Windy and Windfinder were developed for windsurfing and sailing. On the other hand, our tax dollars pay for NOAA, a government agency that is chartered to predict weather patterns and ocean environments. Their reports and advisories are for the general public and especially for boaters. They also have a large team of scientists committed to creating accurate models. Their models/data are used by our military. That's good enough for me.

So yes, their reports are on the pessimistic side. But I have confidence in their data and it's my primary. The other sites I use to try to get a better idea of "window of opportunity" when NOAA forecast is marginal.

To help me determine my personal wind tolerance I bought a cheap anemometer (link below) so I could link the actual wind speed I was experiencing to the conditions on the water. By doing this on a few trips I determined that a steady wind around 10mph was the level when I typically start heading back to shore, of course that is influenced by swell, how far I'm out, etc. and everyone has a different tolerance. Now I have a much better idea of what to look for in the forecasts. You could also try to use the Beaufort scale to estimate wind speed, but it is not very quantitative.


https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B07PXJWC7X/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Great idea, quite practical and 10mph is my tolerance level as well

I have been out on a couple of occasions where it was nice and calm and things seemed to just change to mid teen wind conditions. In both cases, swells weren't a concern. Only pain endured was getting back to the launch point being a couple miles out. With a little bit of pre-planning, you could have the wind at your back instead of head on. Simple contingency planning in my book!

The ocean’s like that guy on the mound who’s notorious for throwing wild pitches usually aimed at the head. Forecasts for wind and swell are better than they used to be but still unreliable

There’s nothing like experience and the only way to get that is to go out in it My 13 year old son has been in training for the last 3 years surfing, what he loves most now is the biggest nastiest surf you can throw at him

I have complete confidence in him as a waterman and wouldn’t hesitate to take him out on a TI in any kind of conditions. If we do that I know the only thing I’ll have to teach him might be about whatever vessel we get, and maybe working out how to get it in through big surf in case that happens

Not the usual ncka approach to safety but I got my start with a guy who took you out in it and what you got in the way of safety was all internalized

Long way round to saying go out with your eyes open and pay attention, don’t count on any of the forecast stuff

Maybe it’s better to go with somebody with experience but there’s a lot to be said for being on your own with nobody there to save you but you

Long way round to saying go out with your eyes open and pay attention, don’t count on any of the forecast stuff

This nails it.  I use the forecast to determine if I even leave my house.  Once there, I use observations and experience to determine if I launch or stay out.

So I was thinking about going out of Pillar Point tomorrow to pick up some traps out in deeper water, but saw there was a small craft advisory.  But the forecast shows 6.5' at 20 sec. with wind about 2kts most of the day.  That long period swell without wind has always been easy peasy.  What am I missing?

So I was thinking about going out of Pillar Point tomorrow to pick up some traps out in deeper water, but saw there was a small craft advisory.  But the forecast shows 6.5' at 20 sec. with wind about 2kts most of the day.  That long period swell without wind has always been easy peasy.  What am I missing?

Near shore and shallow areas will break much bigger than normal and in places you might not expect.

So I was thinking about going out of Pillar Point tomorrow to pick up some traps out in deeper water, but saw there was a small craft advisory.  But the forecast shows 6.5' at 20 sec. with wind about 2kts most of the day.  That long period swell without wind has always been easy peasy.  What am I missing?

Near shore and shallow areas will break much bigger than normal and in places you might not expect.

I got some traps in 180' water.  I figure out there it'd be a little rolly. 

So I was thinking about going out of Pillar Point tomorrow to pick up some traps out in deeper water, but saw there was a small craft advisory.  But the forecast shows 6.5' at 20 sec. with wind about 2kts most of the day.  That long period swell without wind has always been easy peasy.  What am I missing?

Near shore and shallow areas will break much bigger than normal and in places you might not expect.

Yep  -  6.5 @ 20 is potentially monstrous - especially if it has any west or south in it.

So I was thinking about going out of Pillar Point tomorrow to pick up some traps out in deeper water, but saw there was a small craft advisory.  But the forecast shows 6.5' at 20 sec. with wind about 2kts most of the day.  That long period swell without wind has always been easy peasy.  What am I missing?

Near shore and shallow areas will break much bigger than normal and in places you might not expect.

Yep  -  6.5 @ 20 is potentially monstrous - especially if it has any west or south in it.

The coastal synopsis from NOAA states, "Building swell heights in excess of 10 feet are expected by late tonight over the northern waters, and then over all of our waters Thursday continuing into Friday. This will result in potentially hazardous conditions for smaller vessels."

The zone area forecast is "N winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell up to 2 ft at 12 seconds and W 8 to 10 ft at 21 seconds."

-Allen

So I was thinking about going out of Pillar Point tomorrow to pick up some traps out in deeper water, but saw there was a small craft advisory.  But the forecast shows 6.5' at 20 sec. with wind about 2kts most of the day.  That long period swell without wind has always been easy peasy.  What am I missing?

Near shore and shallow areas will break much bigger than normal and in places you might not expect.

Yep  -  6.5 @ 20 is potentially monstrous - especially if it has any west or south in it.

The coastal synopsis from NOAA states, "Building swell heights in excess of 10 feet are expected by late tonight over the northern waters, and then over all of our waters Thursday continuing into Friday. This will result in potentially hazardous conditions for smaller vessels."

The zone area forecast is "N winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell up to 2 ft at 12 seconds and W 8 to 10 ft at 21 seconds."

-Allen

8-10’@21 will expose stacks you didn’t think you’d ever see.  I’ve been out in conditions similar to that in a kayak once. The only time I ever experienced different weather on top of the swell than at the bottom.   Bottom was nice and balmy, protected from the wind. Top, not so much.

We didn’t catch a damn thing that day and I wouldn’t dream of trying to pull a crab pot in those conditions.

Near shore and shallow areas will break much bigger than normal and in places you might not expect.

Before they had dredged the entrance to Moss landing over ten yrs ago or so. That type of swell and time would have swells breaking at the entrance. Seen a few 18 to 22 ft boats tossed around like corks.

Also been in a few boats staring down big swells as you hit the bottom of the trough.

Alex wrote:

Also been in a few boats staring down big swells as you hit the bottom of the trough

Nothing quite like that experience to make you feel small and insignificant