Novel Coronavirus impacts

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

I have heard it suggested that because of federal money there is a possibility that some hospitals are incentivized to pad the covid-19 statistics.

and how do you explain the rest of the world.  Are they under a different incentive plan?  I guess facts aren't facts, this is all make believe that the whole world is participating in.

It cracks me up when people bristle at the suggestion that they are buying into conspiracy theories. They often follow up with a longwinded THEORY about how the whole world (government, media, etc) is CONSPIRING against them. Go figure...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

I have heard it suggested that because of federal money there is a possibility that some hospitals are incentivized to pad the covid-19 statistics.

and how do you explain the rest of the world.  Are they under a different incentive plan?  I guess facts aren't facts, this is all make believe that the whole world is participating in.

Just so we are clear... you believe what the media and politicians tell you?

Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts:
Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Just what point are you trying to make.  It appears that you are arguing that this is no worse than the flu.  Those in the medical field will tell you this is worse than the flu.

The point is

We don't have enough data to answer the question.

Then can we agree to end the speculation on both sides and just stick to the facts and the impacts this is having on us as individuals and we as a neighborhood/City/County/State/Country?

I really don't mind your speculation as long as everyone understands that it is speculation. To say we won't know what the numbers are until we do the testing is fact, not speculation.

I speculate that we won't have the 2,000,000 deaths first forecasted by the "experts". I wear a mask a lot and do everything I can to protect my elderly parents because I don't have facts and would rather err on the side of caution personally. I'm not ready to speculate that covid-19 is or is not worse than the flu. It may be 5 years before we can compare them in a meaningful way.

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

I have heard it suggested that because of federal money there is a possibility that some hospitals are incentivized to pad the covid-19 statistics.

and how do you explain the rest of the world.  Are they under a different incentive plan?  I guess facts aren't facts, this is all make believe that the whole world is participating in.

Just so we are clear... you believe what the media and politicians tell you?

Just so we are clear...where do you get your information from?? 

I gave up on believing politicians a long time ago (right/left and everything in between).  I also gave up on the media once it became obvious that they would report anything for ratings (back in the days of Entertainment Tonight if you remember back that far).  What I see reported on the news is a lot of sensationalism over substance. 

I'm much more worried about the cost of oil than the virus.  This is going to trigger Iran or Russia to do something really stupid, like start a war.  The virus is going to run its course no matter what.  That is nature.  That it triggers a war due to economic disaster will kill a while lot more people.  My opinion.  Feel free to continue ridiculing me.

You seem to have a fairly level head and I would not ridicule you.  I don't believe Russia would trigger a war but some of the smaller countries with less economical staying power may try to antagonize other countries around them into a war.  The economics of war are amazing.  Typically, entered into while in a depression and the war creates jobs and a rallying point that boosts the economy while the general public sacrifices.  After the war, a rebuilding process takes place; which brings economic relief.  After the rebuilding cycle, the country either finds its footing and is able to sustain its economy or it falls once again and the cycle starts over.

I'm much more worried about the cost of oil than the virus.  This is going to trigger Iran or Russia to do something really stupid, like start a war.  The virus is going to run its course no matter what.  That is nature.  That it triggers a war due to economic disaster will kill a while lot more people.  My opinion.  Feel free to continue ridiculing me.

You seem to have a fairly level head and I would not ridicule you.  I don't believe Russia would trigger a war but some of the smaller countries with less economical staying power may try to antagonize other countries around them into a war.  The economics of war are amazing.  Typically, entered into while in a depression and the war creates jobs and a rallying point that boosts the economy while the general public sacrifices.  After the war, a rebuilding process takes place; which brings economic relief.  After the rebuilding cycle, the country either finds its footing and is able to sustain its economy or it falls once again and the cycle starts over.

Ha!  No, I was just funning about ridiculing.   I'm tough, I was a technical instructor in the military.  Wore the Yogi Bear hat and everything.  Made grown men cry for their mama.  Now drop and give me 20.  Ha! 
But seriously, as the world's largest producer of oil, the USA stands to really get hurt by this.  At first, the Iranians and Russians were trying to drive fracking (and it's cost) under the table.  To shut down the industry, then bring back to price of oil after they were shuttered.  But capitalism being what it is, discovered more efficient ways to frack, kept at it and now is able to frack out a barrel for under $30.  But with the price of oil in the negative dollars, this is going to shut down oil production world wide.  THAT is going to hurt our economy much worse than the virus will.  But we are strong enough, financially, to muster through it.  We have other revenue than just oil.  Iran and the OPEC nations don't.  And they do NOT want to go back to herding goats.  They have not banked and diversified either.  They will run out of money shortly.  Add the Iranian sanctions and I really don't see how they got a choice but to try and trigger a conflict someplace in the world.  Israel most likely, but there are other nations they could provoke.  Heck North Korea could be selling them technology or even nuke weapons for all we know.  I'm sure Kim's been watching the fumble when one of our nuke carrier captains cried to the media of his crew getting the virus and wanted to 'game over' his ship in port some place.  But I also think we have a good president at the helm for just that sort of thing.  He listens to his military advisors and has not been distracted by the virus press when it comes to world axis of evil.  I doubt other NATO nations are as willing to come to anyone's aid either if such a provocation were to surface. 
I think of it like this; a magician distracts, having it's audience focus over here while they are actually doing something over there. 

Anyways, just a thought.  World virus outbreak, world financial markets in turmoil,  energy market collapse, medical durable goods and safety gear shortages, food distribution disrupted, the population in lock down; things behind the scenes could be happening we may not be watching as closely.  It's a real game of chess with several moves planned in advance while national and local governments try to keep any blame from being directed their way instead of watching the bigger picture. 
I was reading in the newspaper recently how the president may reactivate those with prior military experience.  That made no sense to me, but maybe now I can see the game plan behind that comment.  We were caught with our pants down for 911, imagine terrorists striking now. 

All just my opinion, not even a prediction, but something I've been gearing up for for many years.  As they say, "just because you're paranoid doesn't mean someone is not out to get you."  Ha!

Ha!  No, I was just funning about ridiculing.   
[/quote]
[/quote]

No worries.  You make a good point about the magician (or is it oz behind the curtain).

Having worked in the world of Developers for many years, our President definitely operates in this way.  Bravado and bluster.  Yell louder and crush people who are weak links or strong adversaries.  All while stepping through a planned strategy that was created a long time ago. 

It's funny that this is a kayak fishing forum and we are now talking about WW3

Did y'all see the price of a barrel of oil today?
$-37 a barrel.

NEGATIVE Thirty Seven Dollars a Barrel!!
They can't give the stuff away.   They gotta pay someone $37 a barrel to take it off their hands.  Some places in the US now has gas for under a buck a gallon. 

https://www.investors.com/news/us-oil-prices-have-never-been-this-upside-down-before/

If that's not an impact of the virus, I don't know what is.

I do not think that is the going price for a barrel of crude. On the news there were saying that a Texas oil speculator did not have a buyer for their purchase, so they needed to pay someone to take it. Yes the whole crude market is sliding down fast....but not in the negative.

It's funny that this is a kayak fishing forum and we are now talking about WW3

not the first time and wont be the last time 

I would much rather have pages filled with halibut, salmon, sturgeon hunts, hobie debates, some new guy coming in asking if there are any pointers on how to get strarted......

Did y'all see the price of a barrel of oil today?
$-37 a barrel.

NEGATIVE Thirty Seven Dollars a Barrel!!
They can't give the stuff away.   They gotta pay someone $37 a barrel to take it off their hands.  Some places in the US now has gas for under a buck a gallon. 

https://www.investors.com/news/us-oil-prices-have-never-been-this-upside-down-before/

If that's not an impact of the virus, I don't know what is.

I do not think that is the going price for a barrel of crude. On the news there were saying that a Texas oil speculator did not have a buyer for their purchase, so they needed to pay someone to take it. Yes the whole crude market is sliding down fast....but not in the negative.

It was WTI crude futures with delivery today that went negative. There’s not enough storage or refinery capacity. It was a momentary storage issue.

An actual barrel of WTI is roughly $32 as of last Friday.

Ha!  No, I was just funning about ridiculing.   

[/quote]

No worries.  You make a good point about the magician (or is it oz behind the curtain).

Having worked in the world of Developers for many years, our President definitely operates in this way.  Bravado and bluster.  Yell louder and crush people who are weak links or strong adversaries.  All while stepping through a planned strategy that was created a long time ago.
[/quote]
Who was saying something about conspiracy theories?

Oil;

WTI finished at around $14 today, The US (as well as global) is going to get hammered. The refinery 1 mile to the west of me is running a bare minimum rates, the refinery 3 miles to the east is in the news because it is in the process of a total shutdown. I worked at Shell for 40 years and we only had total shutdowns of the refinery twice after catastrophic world class explosions and fires.

Exploration = shutdown,
Production (pulling it out of the ground) at or near minimums, no demand and no where to store it.
Refining, at minimum, no demand and nowhere to store products
Transportation, by truck and pipeline at minimum, cause if no one's buying it you don't have to move it
Fuel use Sales, WAG 50% off, wouldn't be surprised to see gas stations start to shutdown.

With the exception of gas stations most of those are good paying jobs.

The upside is all that can ramp back up pretty fast, the downside is I don't see a return to past fuel demand for quite awhile (if ever)

I’m not claiming that this is authoritative proof, but he does a decent job explaining it. The hot mike clip is pretty interesting.

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

I have heard it suggested that because of federal money there is a possibility that some hospitals are incentivized to pad the covid-19 statistics.

and how do you explain the rest of the world.  Are they under a different incentive plan?  I guess facts aren't facts, this is all make believe that the whole world is participating in.

Just so we are clear... you believe what the media and politicians tell you?

Just so we are clear...where do you get your information from?? 

I gave up on believing politicians a long time ago (right/left and everything in between).  I also gave up on the media once it became obvious that they would report anything for ratings (back in the days of Entertainment Tonight if you remember back that far).  What I see reported on the news is a lot of sensationalism over substance.

That is kind of my point.  I know what the media and politicians are pushing. I don’t trust them.  For all I know, China could actually look like a scene from the walking dead.  I have no first hand knowledge. But I do know what our local media and politicians have said and it doesn’t match what I am seeing.  As I said in another post, our local government converted our convention center into a medical care facility to handle the overwhelming numbers of covid patients.   There isn’t a single person in the building.