Novel Coronavirus impacts

The article states a .9% death rate. 6 times worse than the flu by comparison

I'm now working 5 days a week 10-12 hours a shift in EMS.  I have to strip all my clothes off in the garage and toss them in the wash then shower before I can go into my home.  I wear full PPE and a respirator that I bought with my own cash my entire shift, I reek of bleach.  I had yesterday off and took the Kayak out from MLK jr Launch ramp in San Leandro bay and was out for 5 hours, caught jack but loved it.  Stressed yes, But I knew what the job was when I took it 20 years ago. I'm getting too old for this shit but now is not the time to hang up the stethoscope.   Stay safe out there brothers

Thanks for doing the work and ... you stay safe as well.


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Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts:
Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Just what point are you trying to make.  It appears that you are arguing that this is no worse than the flu.  Those in the medical field will tell you this is worse than the flu.   

Stop with the facts.  It just messes up the editorial comments. 

I can compare the flu to covid based on data provided.

% of death from flu (worst case scenario = highest # of deaths/lowest number of cases) (62,000/39,000,000 is 0.16%

% of death from covid (reported deaths/reported cases) (40,565/764,265) is 5.30%

Given these numbers, covid is roughly 33 times worse than the flu. 

To be the same as the flu, there needs to be roughly 25,000,000 more cases without anymore deaths.

If you are thinking why would you write this. Until we can test for antibodies we won’t know how many asymptomatic cases there have been. Deaths from reported cases is totally meaningless for comparison to the flu. There might have been 25,000,000 asymptomatic cases. We just don’t have the data. Given the numbers? Those numbers are incomplete. Shouldn’t we withhold judgement until we have real data?

Medical experts are now saying that anywhere between 30% and 80% of all Americans have the antibody, meaning they have had the disease.  With 328,000,000 Americans, even on the low side of 30%, that's about a hundred million people.  New testing is focusing on the antibody.  By knowing that number, we can know if we are saturated for herd immunity.  That would explain the decrease in cases being reported.

the decrease in cases reported is directly linked to the incubation period of the virus and the initiation (and adoption) of stay at home orders. looking at the graphs it is a nearly perfect correlation. and as you caan see on this graph, once about 150 million people were under stay at home orders (SAH) the daily count leveled off at about 30,000 a day (perhaps thats all the system can handle) but you can also see hte scalar nature of 30k new cases pretty quickly adding up to over 800k cases today (not plotted yet) and over 40K deaths...

the idea that anything between 30 and 80% is worth pinning your hat on is silly. Please buy this truck from me, the cost is between $30,000 and $80,000, but you wont know until the financing is finalized,it is a nice truck and I saw you looking at it so, sign here.

2c and a graph

Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts:
Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Just what point are you trying to make.  It appears that you are arguing that this is no worse than the flu.  Those in the medical field will tell you this is worse than the flu.

The point is

We don't have enough data to answer the question.

I think the exact mortality rate (i.e. the number of people who die divided by the total number of people infected) is a bit irrelevant at this point. It’s dependent on testing, and unless they test EVERYONE in the country or run enough randomized testing to calibrate a model, the mortality rate calculation will just be a rough estimate at best.

On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point, and it’s on track to exceed the highest recorded number annual of flu deaths from the last ~10 years. (The number of Covid-19 deaths in the last month alone exceeded the average number of annual flu deaths over the last ~10 years.)

This is the current situation despite much of the country sheltering in place.

Can you imagine how bad this could have been if we hadn’t been ordered to shelter in place?

I am honestly worried about will happen if we jump the gun and open things up too soon.

Read up on the 1918 pandemic if you’re interested. It was largely under control at one point with minimal casualties, but came back with a vengeance the next fall (in a nastier mutated form) when people returned to life as usual following the war.

I hope we can learn from that mistake.


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Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts:
Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Just what point are you trying to make.  It appears that you are arguing that this is no worse than the flu.  Those in the medical field will tell you this is worse than the flu.

The point is

We don't have enough data to answer the question.

Then can we agree to end the speculation on both sides and just stick to the facts and the impacts this is having on us as individuals and we as a neighborhood/City/County/State/Country?   

Then can we agree to end the speculation on both sides and just stick to the facts and the impacts this is having on us as individuals and we as a neighborhood/City/County/State/Country?   

First time on the internet?

Then can we agree to end the speculation on both sides and just stick to the facts and the impacts this is having on us as individuals and we as a neighborhood/City/County/State/Country?   

First time on the internet?

Yep... did you know you can find pictures and everything on here?   

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part. 

Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   

 

Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.

so true!  cudda died bc of death

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

I have heard it suggested that because of federal money there is a possibility that some hospitals are incentivized to pad the covid-19 statistics.

”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

Sure, but the same could be said of the flu or any other known illness, so it’s a bit of a moot point.


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”On the other hand, the raw number of Covid-19 deaths isn’t really up for debate at this point,“

Actually, this is not true.   Just because someone died while infected does not mean they died BECAUSE of the virus.   Butbof course the media forgets that part.

I have heard it suggested that because of federal money there is a possibility that some hospitals are incentivized to pad the covid-19 statistics.

and how do you explain the rest of the world.  Are they under a different incentive plan?  I guess facts aren't facts, this is all make believe that the whole world is participating in.