When is it too rough to fish safely

Hey folks, I'm planning on going to Bodega or HMB to do some crabbing this Tuesday, 12/10/19.
Being fairly new to kayak fishing, I'd like a few rules and opinions from you more experienced guys as to when you think it is or is not safe to go out, weather wise that is.
Best I can tell from NOAA, this Tuesday looks pretty forgiving.
Are there better resources of info?
What conditions do you avoid?
Thanks in advance!
zane

Never kayak outside of your own abilities. That being said make sure you have all the necessary safety gear including a water proof radio. When you get to the Harbor mouth you should be able to tell if you should go or not. You should be 100% comfortable righting your kayak and getting back in from the water. I teach these classes for free for NCKA throughout the year. Should definitely take one. Your skills and your kayak are determining factors for different types of situations. The report does look good on Tuesday. However, the weather on the coast can change at any given time without warning. Can't always trust the weather predictions. You also want to look out for strong winds that can keep you from getting back. It is hard to tell someone what is safe and what is not because that can be different for everyone. Here at our shop we close down rentals around 20 kt winds onshore or 10-15 kt offshore winds. Some of these salty kayak fisherman are comfortable in large surf and have seen guys out there with me fishing in 35 kt winds. Just know your comfort zone and don't go beyond it unless with experienced kayakers as a support group

Weather looks good.  Tide change is a bit steep for my tastes.  Depending on where you launch, that morning incoming high tide could make surf launches pretty sporty.  But inside HMB harbor and Doran are very easy launches regardless of tide and wind. 

As Adam said, crabbing is fun and relatively easy, just stay within your comfort level.  And remember that conditions can change very quickly, so have a plan to get back if things get ugly. 

That said, I’ll likely be out somewhere on Tuesday.  I’m thinking Muir or Doran.  Doran was really slow last week but I still did end up with half limits and some big reds. 

Thanks guys. Sounds like I'm pretty much in line with all that. My wind tolerance was a tad lower than your shop, but thats good for now till I get the feel for kts.

these days I tend to go with a "add up to 20 rule".
If swell + wind =20, it's worth considering other options, or at least be prepared with a plan B.
That's just for me though, and for some exposed coast areas i like to fish. For other spots with more protection it could be 30 or so.

If swell period in seconds <= .5(swell height in feet) and swell height in feet + wind in knots <= 15 then fish.

That’s the super rough back of the napkin calculation. It’s pretty conservative but it’s not a bad formula if you don’t have any other point of reference.

When you ask this question

  If the waves breaking on the beach are over your head, you may be in over your head.

I was out at Doran today, it was pretty well deserted. Wind had definitely picked up in the late afternoon. I know my tolerance for swell and wind is a lot different when I’m trying to balance three pots on my boat.

I like Sean’s methodology. CdM kind of nailed it in a visceral way. If you are concerned enough to ask the question, you already have your answer.

Lots of us struggle with it at times when the desire is strong, but you gotta be willing to say “No-Go” even after making a long drive, if it’s not right, don’t go.

One way you may learn the boundaries of your comfort with wind and waves is through experience, if you live through the experience.  For example, suppose that the wind is predicted to be 20 mph, with swell of a certain height and period, and you think, "Well, the conditions which are predicted don't seem so bad, other kayak anglers seem to go out in those conditions," and you go out, get the crap scared out of you, and generally have a pretty negative experience.  After that experience, you may be much more conservative about the kind of wind and waves which you venture out into, which would be a very good thing. 

But a better and safer way to develop your personal weather comfort boundaries is by learning from the experience of other people.  If somebody says to you "I don't go out if the wind is predicted to be faster than 12 mph," don't think "This guy seems like kind of a chicken." Rather, learn from his experience. Put your personal boundary at 10 mph until you have kayaked enough to know whether you will feel comfortable going out when the wind is predicted to be more than 10 mph.

Consider investing in an inexpensive hand-held anemometer, and using it to measure wind speeds in various conditions.  Making such measurements will give you a much better understanding of what a 5 mph wind, a 10  mph wind, a 15 mph wind, and a 20 mph wind feel like, and the effect that those wind speeds have on waves and the speed and handling of your kayak.  The anemometer shown below cost me $28, and I store it in a $5.88 Outdoor Products dry box which I bought at Walmart.  Its buttons are simple and intuitive, and it's easy to operate.

A lot of it depends on your kayak too, I know I don't enjoy going out in my paddle kayak if it's >15 MPH, the boat just constantly gets turned sideways and your not productive.  Pedal kayaks will be different.

Consider investing in an inexpensive hand-held anemometer, and using it to measure wind speeds in various conditions.  ...

That's a great idea. What brand is that one in the picture?

Consider investing in an inexpensive hand-held anemometer, and using it to measure wind speeds in various conditions.  ...

That's a great idea. What brand is that one in the picture?

If you search Amazon for "anemometer" you'll find a lot of handheld anemometers, including the one I bought and similar items which are sold under various brand names.

A lot of it depends on your kayak too, I know I don't enjoy going out in my paddle kayak if it's >15 MPH, the boat just constantly gets turned sideways and your not productive.  Pedal kayaks will be different.

In my Tarpon 120 I was less bold. A 15mph wind blowing you out to sea is worse than one blowing you in. Wind blowing opposite of the tide direction makes for choppy water. The beach and the swell can combine in different ways to make the same conditions acceptable in one location and dangerous in another. Get comfortable using your kayak and then wait for a day when you can go out with a group.