Thinkin' of goin' solar..

Any one here have any advice on home solar systems?  I've got a few quotes and some ideas.  Right now, a 6kWh system, turn-key, is between $14K and $16K out of pocket after all the discounts, credits, etc.  That works out to around $2.60 to $2.75 per watt. 

Is that a good price?  As recent as 2013, the average price was over $4 a watt, so they have come down.  A lot!  But I hear that there is going to be more aggressive cuts in costs and not sure if now is the time to pull the trigger.  The Federal tax credit, 30% unlimited/no cap, will end on December 31st of 2016.  I imagine that either the credit will be extended, revised or there will be a BIG rush towards the last quarter of 2016 by both the system sellers and buyers if a price war takes off.

Also, looking at mico-inverters that are built into each panel, so essentially, a  panel is complete with a 120v AC output that can go directly to the interface box to your panel.  No central inverter box hanging on the house.  (They are pretty big)  Anyone have any input on that?

idk what the prices are like anymore but that seems legit. i used to install solar when i lived in chico ca area a few years ago.i always said that i would get the micro inverter panels if i ever went solar i like em much more than the big inverters. my only advice seeing as im out of the loop is spend extra money for american made panels. they are waaay better quality than chinese counterparts. even canadian solar makes ok panels. dont get chinese panels.

I recently quoted a few systems as well.  I found the prices to be pretty similar, with lower end pricing around $2.30 a watt through sungevity, and another local installer.   If you haven't, take a look at energysage, it's like a marketplace for contractors to bid on your project.   If you want the name of my contact at sungevity let me know.

Also, a few of the installers I've talked to told me prices have gone up a little due to higher tariffs on Chinese made panels.

Figure out if you want to replace 100% of your usage or not. If your local utility has a cheap tier 1, you might be better off without the extra up front cost, as that would result in a longer payback period on that energy. Unless you plan to go off grid completely, which is not a very workable option yet.

Average turnkey prices at the end of 2014 were still quite a bit higher than what you're looking at now. I don't have any 2015 data.

Something to consider beyond the expiration of the federal tax credit is what's going on with NEM (net energy metering) in California. If your service provider is PG&E, SCE, or SDG&E, then they required to offer NEM (with standard terms as they exist now) up to an aggregate capacity limit. PG&E and SDG&E will likely hit their capacity limit in early 2016. After that, customers who install solar will be offered NEM under revised terms (dubbed NEM 2.0). The rules for NEM 2.0 haven't been set yet, but they will very likely be less attractive from a solar customer's perspective.

If you install a system before the capacity limit is reached, you will be grandfathered in under the existing terms for a period of 20 years.

Rate structures are also going to change for those utilities. The tiers will be collapsed from four to two with the differential between tiers 1 and 2 narrowing to 20%. You can also expect charges to be shifted from a per-kWh basis to a fixed per-customer charge (solar customers will pay this regardless of what they generate). Currently that fixed charge is limited to $10/month.

It's a tricky time to do payback calculations....

Figure out if you want to replace 100% of your usage or not. If your local utility has a cheap tier 1, you might be better off without the extra up front cost, as that would result in a longer payback period on that energy. Unless you plan to go off grid completely, which is not a very workable option yet.

Here's the thing about Tier rankings;
The values are about to undergo a major change.  Courts have determined that utilities can not charge more just because you are using more.  They ca only charge what their costs are prospectively.  In the past, utilities have offset lower tiers with higher costs in upper tiers to give the lower income folks a break, essentially making the lower tiers subsidized by the higher ones.  But now court rulings stipulate that, unless it actually costs the utility company more to generate that electricity, the upper levels of generation in their system, they can not shift the costs to upper tiers just because they use more.  The results will be that lower tiers will have to begin to pay the actual cost to generate.  Not a big game changer at first, but the California legislator just voted to approve a mandate that electric generation be 50% renewable by 2030.  That is going to really cause a jump in electric rates in this state.  I suspect bottom tier 1, currently at 13 cents a kWh, will possibly double in just the next couple years as utilities try to fund the construction of renewable generation sources. 

You can also expect charges to be shifted from a per-kWh basis to a fixed per-customer charge (solar customers will pay this regardless of what they generate). Currently that fixed charge is limited to $10/month.

The bills already reflect the percentages for generation and distribution among others.  I imagine distribution percentages will have to increase as generation decreases with independent generation sources come on-line.  You make a great point; you can never get your electric utility bill to zero as long as there is a meter on your house, regardless of your usage. 

As far as net metering, that is also a great concern as is the retirement/sunset of the Federal tax credit of 30% ending in 2016. 

What really bugs me is that the state of California offers nothing for solar credit.  They are mandating a 50% renewable by 2030, they are selling carbon credits, (how many credits will my 6kWh solar plant be worth?), they are mandating 50mpg or better on cars by some future date, they guilt trip everyone into feeling they are the sole cause for global warming, but won't put up a dime to help it's citizens with doing something about it. 
assholes!!! 

Solar these days is all about the financing. I would definitely buy the equipment and not go the lease route like you see advertised all the time. If you're not paying it all out of pocket, check into PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) financing if it is available in your county.

The mirco-inverters per panel or every 2 panels are nice, reducing DC losses and not losing all output in the event of an inverter failure are it's biggest advantages. Some have optimizers built in which will be more efficient, especially in shaded times.

I've been looking at a 250-400kW system for a while at work and now looks like the time because as mentioned the tax credit will expire. We are even looking at doing a storage system that would be quite advantageous since we are on a TOU billing rate.

You really need to check out the Tesla Powerwall system coming out this summer.

http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

You really need to check out the Tesla Powerwall system coming out this summer.

http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I thought maybe they were going to have the tesla plug in to the house & power your household needs

You really need to check out the Tesla Powerwall system coming out this summer.

http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

Expensive for what it does, especially if you can grid tie and get NEM.

You really need to check out the Tesla Powerwall system coming out this summer.

http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

That looks cool.  I signed up for updates.  Definitely want to know more.  My end goal would be to go solar. But to start off having a battery bank that can charge when electricity from the electric company is cheaper would help. 

The bills already reflect the percentages for generation and distribution among others.  I imagine distribution percentages will have to increase as generation decreases with independent generation sources come on-line.  You make a great point; you can never get your electric utility bill to zero as long as there is a meter on your house, regardless of your usage. 

As far as net metering, that is also a great concern as is the retirement/sunset of the Federal tax credit of 30% ending in 2016. 

What really bugs me is that the state of California offers nothing for solar credit.  They are mandating a 50% renewable by 2030, they are selling carbon credits, (how many credits will my 6kWh solar plant be worth?), they are mandating 50mpg or better on cars by some future date, they guilt trip everyone into feeling they are the sole cause for global warming, but won't put up a dime to help it's citizens with doing something about it. 
assholes!!!

Completely agree that the state does not always support its own policy objectives, but I think it's been pretty generous on customer solar. The direct incentives have all gone away as system costs plummeted, but NEM is a state mandate... and without it, solar wouldn't make economic sense for many people. That's changing, though. There is so much renewable energy coming online that the existing grid and resource mix won't be able to handle it reliably without some expensive upgrades. The state is walking this line of promoting clean energy while also ensuring that the associated costs are not carried disproportionally by non-solar customers.

I don't have any recommendations about companies or inverters... my only point was that if you're set on investing in solar, then don't wait much longer to pull the trigger. If you wait a year and system costs drop another 20 percent but you're under the NEM 2.0 rules, it's possible that you'll get far less financial benefit over the life of your system.

You really need to check out the Tesla Powerwall system coming out this summer.

http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

Expensive for what it does, especially if you can grid tie and get NEM.

Expensive indeed.

We are even looking at doing a storage system that would be quite advantageous since we are on a TOU billing rate.

I've worked out the calcs for TOU billing and optimizing the solar panels for azimuth and tilt.  For my lat anyways, of 38 degrees north.  I bet you are within a degree of that.

So, instead of 180 degree azimuth and 22 degree tilt for best annual generation,  I calculated that at latitude 38 degrees north, the most economical orientation is to face 37 degrees west of south, and tilt 31 degrees from horizontal.  You will generate the most power when PG&E charges the highest rates AND you will sell back excess power to PG&E also at the highest rates. 

 In California, Pacific Gas and Electric is required to buy electricity from small generators at the same rate at which they sell it. If you have a solar electric system connected to their grid, then rather than maximizing the amount of energy you produce, you may be interested in maximizing the amount of money you can be paid for generating electricity (or equivalently, the amount of money you can save by not buying their energy).

From noon to 6 pm between May 1st and November 1st, PG&E will buy or sell electricity at 35 cents per kwh. During all other times, they will buy or sell electricity at 5 cents per kwh on TOU.  I think those are still the TOU figures.