Wind Warning

What I hear is, don't drop your guard just because the weather report is calling for nice conditions. Close enough?

there was a light north wind which was predicted to shift to the south in a couple of hours, perfect for my return to shore.

"The forecast is important and should be everyone's first tool, but relying on the forecast conditions to materialize is a mistake." 

The author of this post, YakfnFish, clearly stated that he headed south with a tailwind and counted on a forecasted change to help him back to port.  The change didn't come, and he had a hard paddle to get back to safety.  I then stated that using the forecast is important and should be everyone's first tool when planning time on the ocean.  I went on to write and emphasize that no one should count on a forecast to come true, which (I thought it was obvious) referred to YaknFish's story where he'd clearly used the wind to help him get where he went, and then he'd thought that a forecasted change in the conditions would materialize at some point and help him home.

If it wasn't raining and the forecast called for rain (100%) and I counted on getting a little drink to avoid getting thirsty (or dying...), I'd be statistically OK, but I'd be foolish to put my life at risk counting on it.

there was a light north wind which was predicted to shift to the south in a couple of hours, perfect for my return to shore.

"The forecast is important and should be everyone's first tool, but relying on the forecast conditions to materialize is a mistake." 

The author of this post, YakfnFish, clearly stated that he headed south with a tailwind and counted on a forecasted change to help him back to port.  The change didn't come, and he had a hard paddle to get back to safety.  I then stated that using the forecast is important and should be everyone's first tool when planning time on the ocean.  I went on to write and emphasize that no one should count on a forecast to come true, which (I thought it was obvious) referred to YaknFish's story where he'd clearly used the wind to help him get where he went, and then he'd thought that a forecasted change in the conditions would materialize at some point and help him home.

If it wasn't raining and the forecast called for rain (100%) and I counted on getting a little drink to avoid getting thirsty (or dying...), I'd be statistically OK, but I'd be foolish to put my life at risk counting on it.

Ok that is clearer. Don't plan on a wind to blow you back in, because if you can't make it without the wind you could end up in trouble. Sounds like good advice. I often try to plan my trips so I will be paddling with the wind on the way back. I realize it would be a mistake to go where I can't make it back if the wind doesn't cooperate.  You seem irritated by me trying to better understand what you are saying. I think I was reading your words a little differently than you meant them. Every time we venture out into the ocean in a little plastic paddle powered boat we rely on the forecasted conditions materializing. I imagine many of us are not able to handle everything the ocean might throw at us. If the actual conditions are much worse than forecasted, we could find ourselves in trouble. We don't stay home, we rely on the actual conditions matching forecasted conditions. I figured I wasn't getting something so I asked you to put a little finer point on it. Not meant to be critical.

To keep yourself safe. Stay close to shore ( and from where you launched ) for multiple, multiple trips until you can experience for yourself that you are comfortable with your surroundings and being able to navigate back safely. I would recommend for the ocean to stay close for the entire season until you are able to experience all the different seasonal patterns the ocean has to offer. Wind, swell, tide and fog . And of course it will be different from location to location. Wet or dry suit , Radio , whistle, Navigation device for fog. And PRACTICE being able to get back in to your kayak if it flips !!!! Be safe Traildad and good luck !

To keep yourself safe. Stay close to shore for multiple, multiple trips until you can experience for yourself that you are comfortable with your surroundings and being able to navigate back safely. I would recommend for the ocean to stay close for the entire season until you are able to experience all the different seasonal patterns the ocean has to offer. Wind, swell, tide and fog . And of course it will be different from location to location. Wet or dry suit , Radio, Navigation device for fog. And PRACTICE being able to get back in to your kayak if it flips !!!! Be safe Traildad and good luck !

Sounds like more good advice. Just out of curiosity, how far offshore is a normal rockfish or salmon trip, or how far from launch?

You seem irritated by me trying to better understand what you are saying.

You seem unable to literally translate what I've written.  We may both need to make some adjustments...

I don't agree with this:

Every time we venture out into the ocean in a little plastic paddle powered boat we rely on the forecasted conditions materializing.

Most of us actually paddle out after seeing that the forecast has indeed materialized.

To paddle out and rely on something changing is the mistake I'm talking about.

how far offshore is a normal rockfish or salmon trip, or how far from launch?

Totally depends on location, how the bite is that day, who you are...

At Trinidad you're looking at usually paddling 3 miles offshore to get to the salmon bite - Shelter Cove is more like 1 to 1.5 - Eureka is 2 to 5.

Rockfish and lingcod trips are usually much closer to shore at most all locations along the Nor Cal coast.

Monterey bay is several miles for salmon. And in the spring months. Weather conditions can change rapidly!!!

I wasn't relying on a favorable wind change to get me back; it simply seemed like a perfect forecast.  However I certainly wasn't expecting the light north wind to increase to about 20 mph.  If the north wind had simply died, remained light, or increased moderately it would have been okay.  I only mentioned the forecast to show how inaccurate it can be, even for the same day.  I retrieved all of my traps because I couldn't come back for them the next day, but I probably should have left the last two for a calmer day when I could come back; if a similar situation arises again that is what I will do.

there was a light north wind which was predicted to shift to the south in a couple of hours, perfect for my return to shore.

"The forecast is important and should be everyone's first tool, but relying on the forecast conditions to materialize is a mistake." 

The author of this post, YakfnFish, clearly stated that he headed south with a tailwind and counted on a forecasted change to help him back to port.  The change didn't come, and he had a hard paddle to get back to safety.  I then stated that using the forecast is important and should be everyone's first tool when planning time on the ocean.  I went on to write and emphasize that no one should count on a forecast to come true, which (I thought it was obvious) referred to YaknFish's story where he'd clearly used the wind to help him get where he went, and then he'd thought that a forecasted change in the conditions would materialize at some point and help him home.

If it wasn't raining and the forecast called for rain (100%) and I counted on getting a little drink to avoid getting thirsty (or dying...), I'd be statistically OK, but I'd be foolish to put my life at risk counting on it.

You seem irritated by me trying to better understand what you are saying.

You seem unable to literally translate what I've written.  We may both need to make some adjustments...

I don't agree with this:

Every time we venture out into the ocean in a little plastic paddle powered boat we rely on the forecasted conditions materializing.

Most of us actually paddle out after seeing that the forecast has indeed materialized.

To paddle out and rely on something changing is the mistake I'm talking about.

Aren't you also relying on the forecasted conditions not changing? If the forecasted conditions are for calm winds and seas and you paddle out you are relying on an accurate forecast for the latter part of the day. You made a point that suggested two slightly different meanings for the word rely. Relying on, accepting, believing, the afternoon conditions will match the forecast. Relying on the forecasted conditions to materialize, without which you will have a difficult or impossible time returning to port. I think the dictionary explains the difference.

My usage...
depend on with full trust or confidence.
"I know I can rely on your discretion"
synonyms:   depend on, count on, bank on, place reliance on, reckon on; be confident of, be sure of, believe in, have faith in, trust in; informalswear by, figure on
"we can rely on his discretion"

Your usage...
be dependent on.
"the charity has to rely entirely on public donations"
synonyms:   be dependent on, depend on, be unable to manage without More

We're not getting into another discussion on semantics and interpretation AGAIN, are we?

-Allen

I sure hope not. I think it is settled now.

We're not getting into another discussion on semantics and interpretation AGAIN, are we?

-Allen

Lol. Hey Traildad. Are you a retired English Teacher? . Pls don't evaluate my grammar and punctuation (cause) it sucks.
 

  Lesson learned...   

We're not getting into another discussion on semantics and interpretation AGAIN, are we?

-Allen

Lol. Hey Traildad. Are you a retired English Teacher? . Pls don't evaluate my grammar and punctuation (cause) it sucks.

No it's not about grammar or punctuation or spelling. Communicating and understanding is the goal. When there is a misunderstanding, sometimes the dictionary helps us to figure it out.