Understanding surf wind and swell reports

Lastly,  understanding the Surf, Swell and Wind reports dont mean squatt if those fewls who make the forecast suck!

They were WAY OFF today..... it made for a wet ride all day when we did a S&R mission for my pots which have been soaking since 11/23.....

Find the pots?

Find the pots?

3 out of 5; 2 of the pots had 5 commercial crabs, but the 3rd pot had rusted too much, the escape rings and doors opened and zero crab. Weather got to nasty, so we called it a day; good thing, because the red flag just went up while we had pulled in....

btw: fresh crab tasted GOOOOOODDD!

Like I said tho, time, time, time.

I agree that it really comes down to time on the water and observing the actual conditions vs forecasted over many many trips to get an idea of whats comfortable for you.  Like others have mentioned, some days the forecast will look very doable, but once actually on the water, it may be a different story and vise versa.  Good luck.

I agree. Of course the reason for the question I asked was not to figure out when it was guaranteed safe. I am hoping to get a good idea when it is too rough for noobies and avoid a long drive for nothing. As I gain experience I will adjust my limits on the numbers. I'm just hoping to reduce how many times I get turned away at the launch because of bad conditions.

that is pretty smart...You could for sure get a good idea from reading reports on here in season...and from beach/surf, live cams...almost all areas have them and the places you go must...would be good if you had a kayak shop or trusted bait shop..or a local you could call....down here it changes so much and each few miles the coast is a bit different which throws a blanket forecast out the window...rain and strong wind...and direction of wind are things in my first season that seem to matter most...newb here doing the same thing as you...trying to see if I should fish or plan something else...so far I have found last minute turn around calls are pretty rare imo

Here's an article from our neighbors up north that pretty much says what the guys here have said :
http://www.northwestkayakanglers.com/index.php?page=38

Ever wonder what is reported as the wave height forecast?

http://www.mxak.org/weather/pdfs/waves.pdf

This document walks you through an example of a forecast of 10 foot swells.  It shows that the average height would be 6 ft.  However, 10% of the waves would be 12.7 ft or higher.  1% of the waves would be 16.7 feet or higher.  The max wave height that could be expected is 20 ft.

Good stuff!

-Allen

Thanks Allen, very cool.  I had forgotten about this

Nice! More good info. I like it when a question creates a resource for everyone to use. Thanks everyone. 

man...we launched at the beach in monterey..it was like glass around 9...little wind ripple by 10-by the time we paddled out and did a few drops for sand dabs it looked like the storm scene from caddyshack where the golfer gets hit by lightning ...the wind was coming from the south and blowing out to sea...we were in knarly wind and could barley paddle in...chop...multi direction hull slapping...even the little sailboat race went in......from nice to knarly....very very quick....fastest change I have experienced so far.....almost scary...

man...we launched at the beach in monterey..it was like glass around 9...little wind ripple by 10-by the time we paddled out and did a few drops for sand dabs it looked like the storm scene from caddyshack where the golfer gets hit by lightning ...the wind was coming from the south and blowing out to sea...we were in knarly wind and could barley paddle in...chop...multi direction hull slapping...even the little sailboat race went in......from nice to knarly....very very quick....fastest change I have experienced so far.....almost scary...

That definitely sounds scary. I'm always extra cautious when the wind is blowing offshore. I figure if things go bad, the last thing I'd want is to have the wind pushing me farther out.

the news showed the golfers at the ProAm saying 30 + winds are enough that the balls on the green blow away between plays...I dont feel so bad calling it today and paddling in...so whatever the numbers they were calling for today...those would be the numbers to avoid..or swim some 

I always like to head into the wind so if the wind picks up I have good chance of making it back to my starting beach.

Lots of great links/references on this thread.  Going back a little about wave period, on a kayak longer periods will be easier to manage with significant swell height (This is where it gets subjective). Think larger rolling swells.  A shorter period is more likely to feel choppy and bumpy on the water, think lots of small waves in rapid succession.  From a diving point of view, shorter period is better because you don't have underwater surges pushing you in one direction for 10+ seconds at a time.  But this is still pertinent for fishing cause your tackle will certainly be affected.
Cheers,
Joe

I always like to head into the wind so if the wind picks up I have good chance of making it back to my starting beach.

Tide info also helps with the wind direction. Just before slack tide out. Ride the wind and the tide in. Well at least that's the way it's supposed to work. I haven't fished out of Burlingame in some time. But I remember those tides being a lot more prevalent than the ocean.