how do you read a weather report?

oh yes,,,,,use it only as a guide......and dont be affraid to tuck tail and abbort plan......it's takes more of a man to say NO, then to have to call CoastGuard for help later, or even worse.

There's an old Indian saying that applies to this very well.
You'll NEVER KNOW......... unless YOU GO!     

 

I don't trust this website:  http://www.surf-forecast.com/  One time it told me the waves and wind are suppose to be down at Carmel.  It wasn't the case.

These are my go to sites:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.KMTR.html

The fishing part of kayakfishing is really only about 10% of the activity.

Well said Sean 

I don't trust this website:  http://www.surf-forecast.com/  One time it told me the waves and wind are suppose to be down at Carmel.  It wasn't the case.

These are my go to sites:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS56.KMTR.html

Over the years I have found that site to be pretty reliable for the N of PP spots, but not so good at places farther south. It was pretty dead on for last weekend @ Pebble & Bean. I always check NOAA as well tho.

so for instance.. how would you guys rate this forecast:


W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
MIXED SWELL NW 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.

doable, borderline , sketchy, stay home ..??

Doable
Go early before the wind picks up. Have a compass and a GPS because you might not be able to see where you are going. Also be careful because no one will be able to see you if boats are around.

so for instance.. how would you guys rate this forecast:


W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
MIXED SWELL NW 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.

doable, borderline , sketchy, stay home ..??

If that's an ocean forecast I would go somewhere else.  Anything over 10 Knots I personally would wait for a better day or look for alternatives.

This video is a steady 8 knots, the reason it was doable was we were tied to the kelp and fished inshore in a semi protected area.  We also launched and landed in protected area.

gotcha . would like to hit HMB on sunday. protected harbor to launch and land no problem . just worried about swells / breakers over the open reef..

 Just remember the report is just a guide.
 It can be right on, or it can be BS.
 You have to size up the conditions at the spot you choose and plan for a back up spot if its blown out.

so for instance.. how would you guys rate this forecast:


W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
MIXED SWELL NW 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.

doable, borderline , sketchy, stay home ..??

Anything over 10 Knots I personally would wait for a better day or look for alternatives.

Agree with the 10 Kt cut off. Over 10 Kt the wind waves will be over 3' with white caps. White caps are a no go unless you have a Hobie. Wind direction can also be a factor. If it is a day with a strong offshore breeze (east) like the Santa Ana conditions in SCAL, ocean kayaking would be difficult. There are some launch sites on the central coast like Avila where offshore winds are not uncommon.

Two other things to consider if you are surf launching is the swell direction and tides. A 5-6' west or SW can blow out many of the places we launch from. Tides can dramatically change the difficulty of launching and landing if you are launching through rock garden. If you have friends who are surfers, they can be helpful predicting the difficulty of the surf.

Lastly, as others have said, when you get to your launch site take 10 minutes or longer to assess the surf and wind. If it looks sketchy at 6 AM, there is a good chance it will be worse by noon. If your buddy says "if we timed it right we might be able to get out" go to Dennys and have a nice breakfast then go home and watch some football. 

Fishunter's report was one of the most concise concerning this topic I have ever seen. Great job Adam!
I would also add it's nice to look at web cams along the coast and correlate what you see to the predicted conditions.
If you check out the cam, see if the prediction matches what you see you can pretty much determine how things will be the next day based on the next days prediction.

so for instance.. how would you guys rate this forecast:


W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
MIXED SWELL NW 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.

doable, borderline , sketchy, stay home ..??

I'm no expert and somewhat of a fair weather fisherman so I'd rate this as a stay home, 4 to 6 NW means right off the bat that it's gonna be sloppy, vs a simple swell NW at 5 forecast, combine the 4-6 NW with a S at 3 and you have the possibility of some really crappy conditions, sloppy and some highly variable size sets concievably a 9 footer mixed in.  BTDT, most of my experience is shore diving for abs n fish, there have been times when after a fairly easy entry I look up (down) and find myself what feels like 10 ft higher than the shoreline where I got in, that's what a mixed swell can do for you.

my 2 go to site for conditions are stormsurf.com
and the point and click version of the Nat Weather Srvc
this one is a point for Ft Ross.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.49981784551419&lon=-123.24840545654297&site=mtr&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=marine

Swell forecasts are pretty solid up to 48 hours out because they already exist 48 hours (or more) before coming to shore,
Wind forecasts are really unreliable, as evidenced by the above forecast for Ft Ross going from a 10kt forecast 36hr ago to the present 19kt one it shows at this moment.

This thread should be stickied!

so for instance.. how would you guys rate this forecast:


W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT.
MIXED SWELL NW 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.

doable, borderline , sketchy, stay home ..??

One other thing to consider is the target fish.  A south swell usually kills halibut fishing in SC and Capitola but if you are fishing for rockfish in kelp, not as big an issue. I have fished in 7-9 NW swell and definitely do not plan on doing that again.  Between the worry, massive snag factor and holed up fish, it just wasnt worth it.

got it. thanks for all the great replies. i skipped the ocean yesterday..