USGS extended weather forecast

I just got this via the internets

This comes from the USGS.

Should be interesting to see how it all plays out. I think I have some storm prep to attend to....

********************************
Get ready. This is what the emergency response community
is saying:
>
> Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching
its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an
influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some
time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it
from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a
200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm
systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the
coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly
into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in
addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and
supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at
quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be
quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to
potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning
late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This
will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican
border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will
be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a
precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of
snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the
tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big
and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm
events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this
jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway).
Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical
statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a
huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10
inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas.
Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple
that amount in favored areas.
>
 This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually
unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an
additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next
Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential
for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now
shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire
state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at
best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however,
and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's
worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of
freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000
feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious
flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the
tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10
days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves
(even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
>
>
>
> In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds
may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large
and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by
early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful
these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread
damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to
see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will
essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of
this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
>

>
> In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely
to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in
recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to
arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility
of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of
Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the
course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay
tuned.

HFS!  (That's "Holy F#^@ing Sh*&!!!!")

Hopefully it's a drought-ender.  My company does fire/water/storm damage restoration - we've been slammed as it is...

I need a vacation.   

yeah and supposedly a fairly large el nino is either here or on the way.  supposed to be big rains and nice warm yellowtail friendly water here.

no backcountry skiing-- too scary..

*gulp*    I think we will definately be earning our storm trooper badges.

Cool!  Hey Piscean, do you have a link to that USGS report?  Thanks!

Aside from any potential damage these storms might cause (and hardship for the Lake Sonoma Clan), this is GREAT news.

Let it pour for two weeks straight for all I care. WE NEED IT!

Thats what I'm talkin bout.....bye bye hard pack ice, hello powpow.

Cool!  Hey Piscean, do you have a link to that USGS report?  Thanks!

Sorry Bird, that's all I received (& it had been forwarded about a dozen times).

Yeah, not sure what this will mean for my plan on the 22nd........


....but it's looking good for a ski trip next month

http://www.rnrmarinestore.com/product_info.php?cPath=2085873_2134149&products_id=27217054&s=60ca5b49de3d534886939cfb53f3fd87

Sign me up for the car camp please!!!  ......

http://www.rnrmarinestore.com/product_info.php?cPath=2085873_2134149&products_id=27217054&s=60ca5b49de3d534886939cfb53f3fd87

"Products not found"

http://www.go2marine.com/product.do?no=74146F

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=mtr&img=1

North wind too...

I wonder if Maverics will be on....