La Nina on way winter 07-08? Mammoth Mountain weather guru site.

Mammothweather.com: This Mammoth Mountain, CA real estate broker is a weather junkie and his web site is a great source of info for us even if you don't live in that area or aren't a skier or hiker. He has all sorts of links to cool weather stuff. He thinks there is a good possibility of a La Nina event this fall/winter/spring:


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Dweeb Report :
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 Wednesday, September 12, 2007 7:16 AM




"EXPECT A NICE WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSRWS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS.....HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S....OVERALL, IT WILL BE A DRY 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AHEAD BUT NIGHTS ARE CERTAINLY COOLER NOW"

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A COLL WILL EJECT INTO THE PAC NW THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING BREEZIER WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

9-12-07 UPDATE:

00Z AND 06Z 9-12-07 MODEL RUN

OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN ON THE MORNING OF THE 15TH. THE FIRST ISOBAR CROSSES 140E AT ABOUT 42N. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THEREAFTER AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE MODELS SHOWS "DOWN STREAM" AMPLIFICATION.
THEN 96 HOURS POST, ALONG THE WEST COAST, SHOWS A SMALL UPPER TROF DEVELOPING THAT WILL EITHER PROGRESS THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH A POSSIBLE DUSTING....OR CLOSE OFF AND SLOW DOWN TAPPING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING A SEPTEMBER SURPRISE. LONG RANGE BACK CROSS COUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD ""BE AWARE"" OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN THE 19TH AND THE 21ST OF SEPTEMBER......THERE IS VERY GOOD CLIMO-SUPPORT FOR A SYSTEM AROUND THE EQUINOX IN MAMMOTH THAT BRINGS COLD PRECIPITATION....MORE LATER.


WESTERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES.....THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH NOW BACK IN DRIVERS SEAT NEAR 140WEST.....THE STRING OF SUPER WARM TEMPS OF SUMMER APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN BROKEN. I DO EXPECT MORE UP STREAM AMPLIFICATION IN THE WEEKS TO COME. SO, EXPECT MORE PERIODIC COOL DOWNS NOW AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OUR 1ST DUSTING OR BETTER, BETWEEN THE (19TH-22ST)....WILL FINE TUNE LATER.....



ITS OFFICIAL....CPC NOW RECOGNIZING WE ARE IN A STRENGTHENING LA NINA PATTERN...THE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED....


LA NINA UPDATE:

THE GLOBAL CIRCULATION CONTINUES IN LA NINA MODE WITH GLOBAL ANGULAR MOMENTUM WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. AS WE GO THROUGH THE FALL, WHICH IS WHAT NORMALLY IS A FAVORED TIME FOR THE COOLING OF THE EQUATORIAL SSTS...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW NEGATIVE THE SSTAS BECOME IN THE VARIOUS NINO REGIONS

A MODERATE LA NINA STATE IN THE FALL IS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY COLD WESTERN CANADIAN OUTBREAKS OVER THE WEST....EARLY SNOWS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PERIODS OF STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOT SANTANA WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE EARLY TO MID FALL.....THEN COLD SANTANA WINDS IN THE LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER. WET STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE OFTEN TIMES WILL OCCUR LATER THAN NORMAL.

THE DWEEBS BELIEVE THAT A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PNA WILL DEVELOP BY MID NOVEMBER TO LATE NOVEMBER WITH STRONG COLD STORMS INTO DECEMBER AND INTO THE BOREAL WINTER. THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFERENT WINTER FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAN LAST WINTER.

I AM STILL LOOKING FOR "AT LEAST" ONE RECORD COLD SPELL BY LATE FALL OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

GOT WOOD?

THEN THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP POOL OF WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC MAY SLOSH EASTWARD AGAIN SOMETIME AFTER FEBRUARY OR MARCH 2008. WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG MJO EVENT THAT WEAKENS THE EASTERLY TRADES TO LA NINA'S DEMISE.....THEN KICKS STARTS THE EASTERN BASIN WARMING.......AGAIN, THERE IS A LOT OF VERY WARM WATER TO SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC.

THE DWEEBS BELIEVE THAT STRONG MJO'S THAT MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC OFTEN TIMES PRECEDE OR KICK START WARM EVENTS....((ESPECIALLY)) COMING OFF A MODERATE LA NINA. SO A SIGNIFICANT PINEAPPLE CONNECTION FOR NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT BRINGS HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR, MID WINTER OR EARLY SPRING. THE DWEEBS SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE WINTER OF 2008.

ANOTHER INTERESTING NOTE TO MAKE IS THAT ED BERRY"S COMMENT OF "HOW INTERESTING THE WEATHER-CLIMATE SITUATION MAY GET SHOULD THE WARMER 30C WATERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN BECOME STRONGLY CONVECTIVE IN 2008". THE DWEEBS BELIEVE HE IS SUGGESTING A PHASE III RESPONSE OF HIS GDSM MODEL, THROWING THE WEST COAST INTO A QUASI-EL NINO STATE. AGAIN, THIS SOMEWHAT ELUDES TO A PINEAPPLE CONNECTION DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN RETROGRADES, RESULTING WITH A BREAK THROUGH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET INTO THE WEST COAST DURING ONE OF THOSE FAB 10 DAY PERIODS. THOSE PATTERNS, SOMETIME ARE JUST RAIN EVENTS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, SOMETIMES THEY ARE ASSOCIATED AND CONFLUENT WITH THE POLAR JET, AS THE (PJ) DIVERGES TO THE RIGHT AROUND A BIG UPPER HIGH OVER AK.

REMEMBER.....LIVING THROUGH A "MAMMOTH WINTER" IS ANYTHING BUT BORING!!!!!!



DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS...................


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Howard Sheckter
Realtor, Coldwell Banker
Phone: (760) 924-0213
Fax: (760) 924-0250
Mammoth Lakes, California, US
[email protected]
http://www.HomesofMammoth.com   

Awesome hopefully that pans out, we could use the extra water! (If I am reading that correctly) 

I'm gonna throw my hat in the weather arena and predict an el nino/la nina at the begining of every year.  Eventually I'll be right and will be about on par with the rest of the weather gurus at predicting these events.