how to predict current direction

In the bay, ignoring wind, it’s pretty easy to predict current direction based on tide. NOAA has many buoys around and outside the bay. They give free current speed predictions. For current direction they provide the mean (which is kind of like average) at low tide and high tide.

Do folks know if current can be predicted in the ocean based on tide?
I know that swell and wind direction can affect current, so to simplify we can assume those are fixed (say no wind and no swell).

My second question is about repeatability. Say wind and swell are coming from the west, and I measure current direction for both incoming & outgoing tides. Can I expect the same relationship between tide and current direction in the same place but on a different day (where wind and swell are the same) ?

I havent found it but there was a ocean current model Ive seen earlier this year. We had a kid lose his life out there and they were trying to figure out where he might have gone, some1 pulled that model up and you can place a tracer on a certain date and it showed what the current might have been doing that day. Super helpful tool maybe some1 here knows about it. I should have bookmarked that page.

Tides are based on the moon.

In the ocean, Currents are based on water temp.

Tides are based on the moon.

Currents are based on water temp.

class is in session.  Navionics app has tide speed for certain markers in the ocean.  It is one of my recent studies…

Do folks know if current can be predicted in the ocean based on tide?

I’m pretty sure it’s not that easy. I’ve been watching the current predictions in Santa Cruz (based on the CDIP buoy) for a while. There may be some tidal connection, but other factors must play a role. It seems to be periodic on the west side of SC, and I haven’t figured out how to time it (yet). I can tell when current will be small or large, but direction seems to be more difficult, at least for me….

Windy.com has a model for currents... I have looked at this a bit before going out and it has been surprisingly accurate.   

Windy.com has a model for currents... I have looked at this a bit before going out and it has been surprisingly accurate.   

Nice! I checked it on desktop (a bit confusing to add the layer and the icon isn’t showing; I had to select waves and then the currents layer icon showed up).
I’ll check it out and see how accurate it is.

BTW - you mentioned it was pretty accurate. Do you mind sharing for which sites?

Somebody have a link to the current models?

Seems like offshore currents would be fairly predictable, not sure about the little inshore micro zones you’re crossing on a kayak

There are definitely patterns in spots that are good to know about, but is just part of getting to know the spot

Example is the point at Muir and the whole zone going up to Stinson you get some pretty swift ones ripping through there

Or Pedro Pt and the stretch just below it

If you find yourself fighting a current you can usually get inside the worst of it if swell allows or outside if you can find the rip will make your life a lot easier

Seems like offshore currents would be fairly predictable, not sure about the little inshore micro zones you’re crossing on a kayak

This.

The CDIP buoy on the west side of Santa Cruz is in an area that I fish frequently. That buoy measures current (among many other things) and I trust it’s measurements, as it matches what I see when I’m out there. Right now, it’s showing a pretty strong current for that area (0.43 kt) flowing almost directly from east to west. On the other hand, right now Windy.com is showing the current flowing from north to south (at 0.3 kt). I don’t see those as reconcilable differences. And, I’ve been looking at windy off-and-on all afternoon, and it’s varied very little, while CDIP varies (in terms of direction) significantly throughout the day.

In general, I doubt there is sufficient info to make accurate predictions in the near shore zones that we typically kayak.

Windy.com has a model for currents... I have looked at this a bit before going out and it has been surprisingly accurate.   

Nice! I checked it on desktop (a bit confusing to add the layer and the icon isn’t showing; I had to select waves and then the currents layer icon showed up).
I’ll check it out and see how accurate it is.

BTW - you mentioned it was pretty accurate. Do you mind sharing for which sites?

The points made here on in shore areas are prob true.  I used it for the cove trying to predict the direction of the current in terms of north to south or south to north, not nessesarily looking for smaller trends.  Just didn't want to end up in a 3 kt current without maybe a little heads up.  My three times I went this year, it called the direction and speed pretty well.  I'm sure when you throw in coves and protections, the currents can change a bit closer to shore and windy may not be the best.   

In my experience I've not met many people who talk current prediction.  It's not something that I've even dabbled in - on the contrary, I show people that part of going on the ocean is determining what the current is doing as soon as you're in open water. 

At Shelter Cove the current most often runs from the SE to the NW, and breezes that show up are most often about the same - from the south or SE.  I've always explained this as a kind of 'eddy' effect, where, because there's significant north or NW wind offshore, there is makeup air and water on the inside.  Eventually the morning winds, which are typically more from the true north in the summer, shift to being from the NW, and once they're coming, they often come all the way inshore.

Since these same types of conditions occur throughout the summer, and I'm there a lot, I do track how the currents are trending.  This summer we had some unexpected N to S currents, even against south/SE/SW wind.  The worst was a few weeks ago on a decent NE to SW current (odd) that was going against a light south wind.  The wind picked up and came more from the SE, and the current gained strength and was taking us SW.  The chop got extreme due to the opposing forces of the current and the wind.  It was hairball out there, and I'm glad we both had very sound kayaks and the fitness to power back inshore to safety.

What I've determined about currents, for the most part, is to just watch them closely and use strategies to work with them - both for fishing and for safety.  If there are ways to predict them, I'll look at it, but I'll still be skeptical and planning to be aware while on the water.

There was a dude named Chris Kerwin who used to fish Trinidad.  I see him a bit on Facebook these days.  He had posted some current predictions and talked about how he used them to do a long day NW of the Head many years back, and I was curious to read of that type of knowledge.  I'll look him up maybe.

Great topic.   

I have had people who sea kayak recommend the BASK trip planner for figuring out tides and drift but I haven’t taken their advice yet. Like Eric I just see what it is when on the water. Here it is if interested:

https://bask.org/trip_planner/5.51/

Loleta Eric.