Good news wrt the famous virus

In case you haven't seen this yet, it's a must-read:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/17/1000113/up-to-4-of-silicon-valley-already-infected-with-coronavirus/

The upshot is that the they find the actual infection rate here in Santa Clara county is somewhere between 2.5% and 4%, which means that the death rate is pretty low, like 0.2%. It's quite possible (likely, I would say), that they have underestimated the infection rate, since they did not try to account for homeless, prisoners, or other groups that are likely to have higher infection rates. If so, that would mean the death rate is even lower.

Also, since we're at the 1 month anniversary of shelter in place, that's worth considering too. I was never a big fan of it, and can't see that shelter in place has done anything significant for us here in Santa Clara county. If you want to see my reasoning (and some discussion of various related topics), here's a video I made when taking a break from my real job.

Btw, I probably won't be on NCKA much for a while (busy time of the year for me), but if you send me a PM, I'll see it.

In similar study in LA county, they've come up with an infection rate of 4.1%, which matches nicely with the upper range of the study in Santa Clara county.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county

If that's the rate here in Santa Clara county, it would mean the death rate here is in the 0.1% range. That's actually pretty amazing given that 1% was thought to be overly optimistic just a few weeks ago.