How much wind is too much wind on a kayak?

How much wind is too much wind on a kayak? When you are checking reports, what is your limit to not go out? Am I right to be nervous about 10 mph tomorrow? This coming week doesn’t look good but maybe tomorrow morning has a small window?

I may run a bit conservative on this, but I try to avoid any winds 6+ mph, at least in the east SF bay because I just don't enjoy fishing in particularly choppy seas. But for 10+ mph winds, I would advise you stay off the water and wait for calmer days

One of my clients, a retired sailor, told me this quote when he found out I was fishing in the open ocean on a tiny kayak: “There are old sailors and bold sailors, but no old bold sailors.” I’ve lived by this saying. I get that sometimes the weather forecast is completely wrong, so when I’m on the water and the fan starts running, I listen to the sound my line makes cutting through the wind. If it’s really whistling, that’s my cue to head in.

Thanh

It is wind combined with swell that needs attention paid to. One can fish some pretty nasty chop like inside Tomales Bay and be  relatively safe, although miserable, but on open ocean that combo of big swell plus wind is risky.

Which side is the 10 on?  5-10, fine. 10-15, nope.

If it's expected to be close to 10, there's usually higher gusts and likely also a swell that's borderline for me.

I'm coming back to this after a long hiatus and still getting my muscle memory back. I look for very calm conditions now but when I was doing this regularly I looked for <6ft combined seas, >2x that for swell period, and single digit wind forecast.

Wind blowing on the water and a forecast are two different things. A 10 mph forecast might turn out to be a 7 mph wind. You will need to decide if it is worth the trip to see what the actual conditions are. Wind blown whitecaps are definitely more than I want on the water. How much wind is safe is to some degree dependent on what the swell is. Eventually you’ll need to decide based on conditions because what it says in a forecast doesn’t always come even close to what happens when you’re fishing.

When I was starting out I bought a cheap anemometer off Amazon and measured the actual wind speeds I was experiencing. Based on that, for me, below 6 mph is very pleasant. 7-8mph it starts to get a little sporty. By the time it gets to 10 mph I'm usually heading in. For me, the forecast has to be single digits at launch and at most 10 at noon for me to head out knowing that the actual conditions my be worse or better. I also look for 4' or less swell with a period greater than double the swell height. If the wind forecast is exceptionally calm I will go up to 5' swell with a long period. If I had a shorter drive to my favorite spots I might try less favorable forecasts in case the conditions were better. As you get more experience you can dial in your personal thresholds.

When I was starting out I bought a cheap anemometer off Amazon and measured the actual wind speeds I was experiencing. Based on that, for me, below 6 mph is very pleasant. 7-8mph it starts to get a little sporty. By the time it gets to 10 mph I'm usually heading in. For me, the forecast has to be single digits at launch and at most 10 at noon for me to head out knowing that the actual conditions my be worse or better. I also look for 4' or less swell with a period greater than double the swell height. If the wind forecast is exceptionally calm I will go up to 5' swell with a long period. If I had a shorter drive to my favorite spots I might try less favorable forecasts in case the conditions were better. As you get more experience you can dial in your personal thresholds.

Right there with you on all of this!

I was just wondering about swell height going to SC with 6'@9sec forecast. It was actually quite fishable, slightly unpleasant if you were prone to seasickness, but overall pretty good conditions with a faint 1-5mph breeze. Then when the wind picked up, combined with lots of boat wakes, it became pretty dicey, especially when landing lingcod with the dog bouncing around. It was definitely not the conditions to do the kneel over the hobie hole to pee position. So I went in.

Not exactly the answer to the question, but the Beaufort wind scale is worth a look:

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/beaufort

Force 3 (about 10 knots) is where white caps start forming, and it's probably pretty unpleasant kayaking, although on the AI, that just when it starts to get interesting.

In any case, if you look at the wind forecasts on, say, Windy.com, it's not unusual for one of them to predict 4-5 knots at the same time and place where another is predicting 15+ knots, which is world of difference...

Was considering an afternoon outing yesterday because Surfline showed reasonable winds at 5 or 6 knots. But a look at the harbor cam and a couple of beach cams showed whitecaps and beach umbrellas flapping all over, so supplementing the forecast was helpful and I decided against it.

Within the bay, I notice the NOAA website/https://forecast.weather.gov/ does not report swell information. Is there a way to guesstimate what it'll be in the bay itself? Or you only really concern yourself with wind? Sorry for the newbie question

Everyone has a little different comfort level, depending on their experience, equipment, and aversion to risk.

For me, that equation usually lands around 8-10 knots forecast winds and ~5 ft swells, with some fudge left or right a little depending on expected wind gusts, currents, launch factors, swell period, etc.  I find that much of an increase in those parameters creates both an unpleasant time on the kayak and a much more difficult environment to fish effectively.
 

Within the bay, I notice the NOAA website/https://forecast.weather.gov/ does not report swell information. Is there a way to guesstimate what it'll be in the bay itself? Or you only really concern yourself with wind? Sorry for the newbie question

Inside the bay doesn't really get swells in the same way that the ocean does.  It does get wind waves, chop, and lots of ferry wakes though, which can significantly impact your day. In some ways, inside the bay is more hazardous than the ocean - the current rips along with pretty amazing force in some places, and the wind can funnel and create huge wind waves.

Within the bay, I notice the NOAA website/https://forecast.weather.gov/ does not report swell information. Is there a way to guesstimate what it'll be in the bay itself? Or you only really concern yourself with wind? Sorry for the newbie question

Surfline will show you wind, tide and swell and most importantly period of swell.

Within the bay, I notice the NOAA website/https://forecast.weather.gov/ does not report swell information. Is there a way to guesstimate what it'll be in the bay itself? Or you only really concern yourself with wind? Sorry for the newbie question

Surfline will show you wind, tide and swell and most importantly period of swell.

You can get that info on windy.com too, and it seems to generally be pretty accurate.