Interpreting weather

Planning on going to Stillwater cove(Carmel) on Fri.  Weather report says wind 5-15 knots, wind waves 1-3 ft and swell 3 to 8 feet.  Is that a good report to try and go out, or should I wait for something better?


Jody

You never know for sure until you go out.  I went to stillwater sonoma a few weeks ago and the report was like that one.  When I got there the wind was blowing very hard an the swell was pretty big and sharp.  Then again it could be nice, you never really know until you get there.

You should be alright if you stay with-in the cove, but with the wind waves 1-3 feet usually means white caps and could be really difficult to paddle in.

Like the others said, you really can't tell until you get there. But, for that area, those conditions are pretty good.

I was there last weekend and the wind was rippin beyond what they said, so be prepared. Also, good luck with the seals. Had one steal  a fish a couple weeks ago. It was a wild 20 second ride.

Marc Mc

for stillwater cove , Carmel that a go with that forecast

Howdy Jody,

We fish this bay nearly every week.  Part of our planning is to compare the Monterey Bay Forecast, which you cited, with the Monterey Coastal Forecast.  Unless there is a SW swell, the area immediately in front of the Stillwater launch, is usually a little better than the Bay forecast.   So, as the others stated, you should be okay but pay attention.

I am adding to this post because on days that allow it, many of us head beyond the area northwest of the first rocks, out by three Pinnacles.  This area is usually much like the coastal forecast which is as follows for Saturday.
NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EASING OVERNIGHT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5
FT. NW SWELL 10 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
This forecast, if it holds, is not compatible with kayak fishing and is an additional reminder that conditions warrant attention even within the shelter of the cove.

We were just talking the other night and commenting that the August doldrums look to be well gone............

Welcome to the neighborhood..........

Pat

I agree with Blue... the NOAA forecasts, particularly for north of the Gate, cover an area from shore to 20 miles off shore.  Obviously you can't make a generalized statement about the marine weather to cover such a huge area and still be accurate all the time.

This is why I subscribe to www.iwindsurf.com

I find that their wind forecasts are ususally more reliable than the broad forecast issues by the NOAA.  They focus on inshore wind, and I like their real-time wind sensors data... can check the actual wind in many locations before heading out the door.  I'm not saying that they are always spot on with their forecasts, but I find them more reliable than anything else I've come across so far.

Erik

I'm with seabreeze and bluekayak-but will add my centavos

duration- check- longer better when you are on the water. Though long duration swells pack a lot of punch so a shore break could be ugly

swell direction-- this is the biggee for me.  At Muir I can easily launch with 6-8 foot NW swell, but if it was 6-8 W or SW, could be ugly.

Stillwater (carmel) is really protected- though I've been there a few times in winter where it was nasty-- primarily a weird W/SW swell. The big rock/ridge in the center and the shape of the cove and headlands protect you for the most part.

Interpretation of lanching and fishing conditions at a given spot comes down to the wave direction and period spectrum, plus the wind.

The NOAA reports are just way too vague to take into account launching. They say something about how it will be once you are out there, that is it.

There are two things to consider, launching and comfort on the water after you have launched.

I have been interpreting the buoys and deciding where to drive to surf for well over a decade. I pick a spot from SF to Moss Landing. That is 100 miles of coast. The drive is about an hour everywhere so I am motivated to do a good job of interpretation.

Here are some weather interpretation basics (some knowledge of physics is good, but you can learn without it):

A 20 second period wave is going twice as fast as a 10 second period wave. That is why the long period waves get here first from a storm thousands of miles away.

Long period waves can bend around headlands quite a bit.

Short period waves (windswell) do not do this as well.

A wave twice as tall has 4 times the power.

A longer period wave (groundswell) will stand up and break much harder than a short period wave.

So a long period swell can pose some real launching dangers, but will be easy to fish on once you are out there.

short period waves are problematic to fish in (steep and frequent out on the water) but it's usually easy to find a launch that is sheltered from them.

An example:

if you see 10 feet / 20 seconds from 265 degrees, freaking take cover!
super tall, super fast, from a direction that will bend in every cove.
Sometimes a 'pineapple express' storm will send a swell like this.
I have seen 20 feet every 25 second swells....

Another:

6/8 from 330. Any place with any degree of north sheltering will let you go out. But once out you go up and down a lot on steep slow waves,
unless you are in a sheltered bay. Nothing north of about 300 degrees will make it into capitola, _unless_ the period is very long, meaning it can refract or bend around headlands.

Note that you can have combinations of these things because swells from local wind and multiple long distance storms can hit us at the same time.

look at http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/ptreyes.html

or http://cdip.ucsd.edu/recent/model_images/monterey.png

or http://cdip.ucsd.edu/recent/model_images/sf.png

the stuff on the inside of the circle is slow weak waves (reversed for second two links)
the stuff on the outside of the circle is fast powerful waves (reversed for second two links)
The position around the circle is the direction of the wave.
Something from 9 oclock is going to whack us good.
Something from 12 oclock can be ignored mostly.
Something from 7 oclock is bad for santa cruz beach launches.

today we have a windswell from 330, a groundswell from 300 and a very slight south swell from 180.  fishing won't be that fun today.

Tomorrow a _big_ south is forecast. see www.blakestah.com. If the south swell was not filtered by southern hemisphere islands and the north wind from the last few days didn't beat it down, then saturday is not the time to go kayak fishing unless you have been out on a big south swell and you know of a spot that is a safe launch and won't expose you to a huge breaker.

Once I was surfing at steamer lane. It was a big south swell. big waves every 20 minutes or so, long period. fast. otherwise, nice and calm. A skiff came across middle peak and the biggest set in an hour reared up and they got hit. They rescued the people, but one guy was old and had a heart attack and died. southswells can take you by surprise. They are from huge southern hemisphere winter storms that dwarf hurricanes.
Those storms can circle the globe twice in the southern 40's before they expire!

south swells are easy to fish on once you are in the water, no problem if you launch from a harbour. Bad if you launch from a beach and don't have good instincts for timing the waves. hint: wait for a big set. go out immediately _after_ the set.  

north swells generally don't have long period in the summer, you need a big almost-hurricane size temperate low to make the big swells that make this coast good for surfers.

windswell is almost always from a way northerly direction. This is why protected spots south of pigeon point are so nice in the summer.

I recommend checking the above links in the morning, before you leave the house. Then check them again when you get back. You will soon be able to predict the launching and fishing conditions at your local spots.

Erik's idea of using the windsurf site for wind forcasts is great. A kayak forecast site would be a combo of surfer forecasting and sailing forecasting to cover both launch and comfort on the water. I don't think this exists yet.

Great information... makes a lot of sense.  

I'll have to study what you've said a few times but I guess I really never thought about the relationship between long periods and the relative speed of the swells.   Makes sense...


Ek

You guys are a wealth of information.  Thanks.   I will be in Mexico next weekend and hope to do a little yak fishing on the East Cape.  I'll let you know how it was when  I get back.  

Jody

the combination of wnw groundswell + nnw windswell might have been what got you. either alone might have been okay.

glad you made it ashore! I look forward to more stories of gonzo paddling adventures!

Maybe one of those australian surf skis is the call for hardcore salmon fishing. unsinkable, fast. they probably suck while sitting still, but if you hung your feet off the sides, it might be okay. really long would deter Noahs too. hmmm.

Paul,

Why did your boat take water on in the first place and from where?

You were on a sit-on-top? my scrambler took on maybe as much as a pint the one day I took it out in batten-down-the-hatches conditions. I guess it flexes and bends and every hole opens a little once in a while, net result some water builds up. Is that what happened?

gallons! heh. now that's a leak!

Anyone got any tricks for finding leaks?

Filling the hull with water is the most reliable leak test I know.

Paul, do you, by chance, drag your kayak on the ground?
I ask because Chef Stefano once sprung a leak on the bottom rear tip of his kayak.  It resulted from dragging across rocks and parking lots.