Newbie NOAA Forecast Interpretation Help

Hey Guys! I'm trying to learn to understand the NOAA forecasts. Can you share your thoughts on these forecasts? They are for Carmel this weekend when a cold front is expected to arrive.

Is S WINDS winds heading south? Is W SWELL heading west? I feel dumb for asking but I want to make sure i know how to read these things. Would you go fish with these conditions? What is doable for you?

Thanks
Frank


 FRI NIGHT
 S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. WIND
 WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. W SWELL 3 TO 6 FT AND SW 2 TO 3 FT. RAIN.

 SAT
 S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KT.
 WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 4 TO 9 FT AND SW 2 TO 3 FT.
 SHOWERS LIKELY.

 SUN
 NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT.
 W SWELL 4 TO 9 FT AND SW 2 TO 3 FT.

south wind comes out of the south

South swells comes from the south

Both opposite of what you thought.

Get out there and see for yourself, but stay out of the ocean this weekend the swell looks big.

but stay out of the ocean this weekend the swell looks big.

Unless you surf!!   

 FRI NIGHT
 S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. WIND
 WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. W SWELL 3 TO 6 FT AND SW 2 TO 3 FT. RAIN.

 SAT
 S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KT.
 WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 4 TO 9 FT AND SW 2 TO 3 FT.
 SHOWERS LIKELY.

 SUN
 NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT.
 W SWELL 4 TO 9 FT AND SW 2 TO 3 FT.

Conditions like this can be really messy and even treacherous, you have 2 different sets of swells 1 from the W and one from the SW. These swells can at time cancel each other out and show calmer waters for minutes at a time and/or they can pile on top of each other and make some really dangerous waves, without any clear indication when the piling on is gonna happen.

Also seeing a swell range on any day of 4-9 feet would be another clue to times of relatively calm conditions (4ft) with some dangerous (9ft) swells/waves mixed in, and again no indication of when the 9ft swell may show up.  This is why it is so important to observe the conditions from the beach for 20 min minimum if you're unsure of the conditions (or even if you think you're sure).  I've seen sets of large swells show up as much as 45 minutes apart.

Your questions lead me to believe you're not very experienced with the ocean.  These are unusual forecast conditions and this weekend would be a good time to stay out of the ocean, but if it's not too far do drive by and take a look.

Wind is miserable, a true 15kt wind is a killjoy.

Of course all this is from personal experience with some personal opinion mixed in. Others may differ.

Dale

I don't know if surfers even what to do a 15-17.  WOW.
Lucky for me I cancel my dive trip to arena rock to go to BAM IV.  I hope Lake Mendo has a WFO bite going on.

PZZ455-022300-
CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT ARENA OUT 10 NM-
905 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2008

SAT
SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES
2 TO 4 FT. W SWELL 15 TO 17 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS.
 W SWELL 7 TO 8 FT AT 11 SECONDS AND S 2 FT AT 13 SECONDS.
 SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
 .FRI...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3
 TO 5 FT. W SWELL 5 TO 7 FT AT 10 SECONDS AND S 2 FT AT 16 SECONDS.
 CHANCE OF RAIN.

The NOAA will also post the interval-- W SWELL 7 TO 8 FT AT 11 SECONDS  as example.  Longer period means more time to paddle out BUT it also means that the wave has more energy- which means a bigger nastier break.  On the other side-- if they're too close--like less than 8 seconds or so, then the swells can be steep enough to be a problem even after you've paddled out.
The mixed swell is terrible, and those piddly little 2ft swell at 16 seconds will be carrying a lot of energy....

I know it sounds like a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario-- but with time, you'll get to know your launches and what is doable in what conditions.

Thanks guys for sharing your knowledge on this subject. The seas ended up a lot calmer than the NOAA forecast but I think I now understand the forecast and will be able to use my own judgement on whether I would luanch or not. Thanks again!

Thanks guys for sharing your knowledge on this subject. The seas ended up a lot calmer than the NOAA forecast but I think I now understand the forecast and will be able to use my own judgement on whether I would luanch or not. Thanks again!

Also when you look at the forecast, check to see if its the offshore or nearshore forecast..