What would you consider safe conditions?

Hi all,

I understand experience comes into play, just wanted to get a gauge of what people would call safe/acceptable conditions.

Thinking of swell height/period plus wind.

Thanks!

That is kayaker dependent. Someone out for their first ride, on an unstable kayak, will require different conditions than a seasoned kayaker on a super stable one. If the wind is blowing you away from your launch, a weak kayaker might not be able to make it back. A wind blowing towards shore could beach you and winds blowing towards sea could be a problem as well. If launching into the surf, the direction of the swell and how protected the location is makes a big difference.

Most of the time we don’t get a perfectly accurate forecast. You’ll need to get out there and gauge the conditions by looking at them. I could say less than 15 mph, but a forecast doesn’t guarantee that’s what the conditions will actually be. I could say when the height is less than half the period, but kayak stability, secondary swell and wind chop all add to the mix. When the wind chop and swell gets uncomfortable, I know it’s time to get off the water.

There is safety in numbers, so try to join in a group outing. Watch the forecast and current conditions and go down to see what that looks like. Don’t hesitate to turn right  around and head in anytime you feel unsafe.

So maybe the correct answer is, when the conditions don’t exceed your ability.

Good answer by E Kayaker.

If you see a forecast that looks very good, like winds less than 10 knots, swell less than 6', and the prevailing wind and swell are from a direction that's blocked by prominent points (usually north and NW wind/swell blocked by landforms jutting west), then you have some confidence that the water should be pretty nice.  If you show up and it's different, then you may need to adjust your plan.  Those are the easy days, because it's likely that you'll be fine.

The marginal days, when the forecast isn't excellent, but the conditions seem feasible - like wind less than 15, swell less than 8' - if you show up and it's worse than expected, again, you may need to adjust your plan.  What happens though when you show up on this kind of forecast and it looks great?  You're on the water, and shit escalates - wind turns on, swell picks up.  These are the days when planning for that escalation becomes just about the most important move you make for the day.  By staying up wind and up current and not being too far offshore when the forecast is at all marginal, you give yourself the best chance at bailing out if necessary.

I've taken 100's of people out over 25+ years of kayaking on the ocean, and we've only rarely encountered conditions that challenged us and required a retreat to shore.  When that did occur, I had planned for it.  If I had not kept in mind that conditions can and will change, the story would be different.

The only time you can count on the conditions to stay lovely is ...  Never!  But you can work hard to be consistent in your choices:  if possible, only go on good forecasts; be ready for change that brings challenges; plan for adversity.  When you do go on a marginal forecast, don't get lulled into a feeling of safety when things seem fine.

Also - always use multiple forecast tools, compare them to each other, assess how the actual conditions look compared to those forecasts, and get to know which forecasts are most consistent for your preferred locations.

In 20 years Ive bailed <5 times after getting to the coast and finding conditions exceeded my tolerance, twice this year alone.  Took it as a sure sign Ive aged out of the gung ho phase. 

I point that out as indicia of the time/age function for safety.  Nowadays, Im just way more risk averse than before.  Survey any of the OGs who did crazy big sur runs or SMC and youll likely hear same.  We all did some isht back in the day on water and launches that we would deem wild and crazy today.  No sleep, SCA blowouts, and yet we launched….

Back to ur specific q…  12mph and 6 foot swell is my current Mendoza line, where I wont even bother racking the boat.  Its so much milder than yrs past, when go/no go largely turned on schedule availability rather than weather.   

For me, on my little 11ft kayak, 10kt winds and 5ft swells is the absolute limit, and even at that I might still waive off depending on swell direction and period.

Get to know your launch spot and your fishing grounds - it will make it much easier to relate the forecast to actual conditions.

Also, if you plan to go out in SF Bay, the Delta, or Tomales Bay, keep in mind tidal currents. Currents can be significant, and are certainly worth planning around. Again, getting familiar with your spots will really help.

To echo what & said, the indicia do pile on with time, + you never know when you’re going to learn a new word

Though I still get the same adrenaline rush when my son and I are looking up at big surf

Putting aside forecasts and all that a better place to start is take a hard look at your kayak. Turn it into something you can manage in big beach break or when you’re swimming out in the open ocean in steep swell or wind waves

More often than not it's a "window" of safe conditions, that can (and likely will if on the ocean or bay) change as the day goes on.  Even a safe day can turn to an un-safe day if you do not know what to expect with the change in conditions.  You might arrive to your chosen spot with glass like conditions, no swell, and tons of sunshine, and consider it to the epitome of perfect conditions.  But maybe you got a late start, and you head out around 10:00am and by the time you make it out to your fishing grounds the wind starts to pick up and then wind-swell just shows up.  Things can become pretty hairy pretty quick, and you might be fighting to get back to your launch site.  If you know the location you will know where the predominant wind and swell will be coming from.  You will know that the wind almost always picks up at a certain point of time of day, and you plan for it making the most out of your window of opportunity to fish.

Here are some conditions that I consider "unsafe" for me:
- Wind forecast of 10+ MPH.
- Wave or swelling > 8ft.
- Rain (except light rain).
- Kayak fishing alone (unless my wife approved) 

This subject could fill a book

I agree about wind especially as my bod got old and stamina evaporated

Swell I disagree mostly, big is good on a kayak if it’s long period … except maybe around reefs or going through a beach break or through jaws. Other than that I’ll take big long period swell over small short period swell that’s going to be steeper and more random and a lot harder to paddle

I always fish alone All my wife cares about is I come home with the fish

My limit on wind is when it starts the whitecaps. I’ve never figured out exactly what number that is though.