California’s Ocean Salmon Abundance Forecast for 2022

Got a message back from a Smith River contact - using sonar they estimated just over 11,000 Chinook this past fall plus whatever goes to Rowdy Creek drainage - maybe another 1000. 

I've heard in the past that the Mad may have as many as 7500 Chinook (seems high now), and that Redwood Creek could have 5000 (seems high too).  But many of the smaller streams like Bear River, Humboldt Bay tribs and Little River don't have many if any Chinook - mostly coho.  Same with Mendo coast streams like Noyo, Navarro, Garcia...etc. - all the way down.  Russian barely has any. 

If not for Oregon streams that ocean number wouldn't be very fat.

I'm not saying they're doing everything right up there, but, just like what happened last night, lots of our rain has been 'sliding' right up the coast and hitting the PNW instead of us.  Rain = fish, in the long run.

We're hurtin'.

Got a message back from a Smith River contact - using sonar they estimated just over 11,000 Chinook this past fall plus whatever goes to Rowdy Creek drainage - maybe another 1000. 

I've heard in the past that the Mad may have as many as 7500 Chinook (seems high now), and that Redwood Creek could have 5000 (seems high too).  But many of the smaller streams like Bear River, Humboldt Bay tribs and Little River don't have many if any Chinook - mostly coho.  Same with Mendo coast streams like Noyo, Navarro, Garcia...etc. - all the way down.  Russian barely has any. 

If not for Oregon streams that ocean number wouldn't be very fat.

I'm not saying they're doing everything right up there, but, just like what happened last night, lots of our rain has been 'sliding' right up the coast and hitting the PNW instead of us.  Rain = fish, in the long run.

We're hurtin'.

A million isn't very many.  Historical abundance on the Sacramento river alone was upwards of 8-10 million.  The takeaway is that we have approx. the same number of fish as last year.  We should have similar seasons and similar success rates.